Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe College Football Betting Pick 11/2/19

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The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks will do battle on the turf at JPS Field at James L. Malone Stadium. This conference showdown gets underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPNU. When the two squads met last year, Arkansas State won by a couple of touchdowns 31-17.

Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe Betting Odds 11/2/2019

Louisiana-Monroe is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 1 point. The Red Wolves are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Warhawks are -105. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 67 points, and if one side gets out in front early, it would likely create a nice live betting opportunity.

This game’s total hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 67. Having said that, the line opened at 0 and has recently moved up to 1.

The Red Wolves have lost 0.7 units so far and are 3-5 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-4.

The Warhawks have lost 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-4.

The Red Wolves are 4-4 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against SBC opponents. The Warhawks are 3-4 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.

The Red Wolves are looking to maintain momentum following a solid 38-14 win over Texas State last week. Layne Hatcher completed 18-of-28 passes for only 158 yards and two touchdowns. Marcel Murray (114 yards on 22 rush attempts, two TDs) and Jamal Jones (63 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the running attack while Omar Bayless (seven receptions, 77 yards, two TDs) and Kirk Merritt (three catches, 40 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.

Back on October 19, Appalachian State knocked off this Louisiana-Monroe team by a score of 52-7. The Warhawks defensive unit allowed the Mountaineers to kill the clock by rushing for 302 yards on 52 attempts, including three rush TDs. Darrynton Evans shredded the defense, putting up 136 rushing yards and a score on 17 attempts, along with 41 yards on three catches for Appalachian State. As a group, the Warhawks collectively completed 11-of-27 passes for 102 yards and two interceptions. Caleb Evans went nine-for-19 for 75 yards and one interception while Colby Suits was two-of-eight for 27 yards and one interception. Josh Johnson (77 yards on 13 rush attempts) mounted the running attack as Markis McCray (two receptions, 29 yards) and Zach Jackson (two catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Arkansas State has run the ball on 49 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana-Monroe has an overall rush percentage of 53.5 percent. The Red Wolves have rushed for 132 yards per game (including 149 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Warhawks are putting up 202 rushing yards per game (152 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Warhawks should own an advantage in the trenches, since their offensive line has allowed just nine sacks while the D-line has logged 11 sacks. The Red Wolves offensive line has given up 24 sacks and their defense has forced only 15 sacks.

The Red Wolves offensive scheme has tallied 296 yards/game through the air overall (306 per game versus conference opposition) and has 22 passing scores so far. The Warhawks have put up 225 pass yards per game (204.3 against SBC competition) and have 10 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Arkansas State has allowed 211 rush yards and 281 pass yards per game. The Louisiana-Monroe D has given up 252.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 239.3 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Red Wolves have given up an ANY/A of 6.68 to opposing QBs, while the Warhawks are allowing an ANY/A of 7.09.

Hatcher is up to 950 passing yards this season, and has completed 67-of-100 attempts with 10 passing touchdowns and five interceptions. Hatcher has a 7.81 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.57 over the last two games.

The Red Wolves will probably try to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Omar Bayless (920 yards, 12 TDs), Marcel Murray (308 rush yards, three rush TDs, 14 receiving yards) and Jamal Jones (125 rush yards, two rush TDs) have been big focal points in the offensive gameplans for Arkansas State.

In the home locker room, Caleb Evans has completed 110-of-181 passes for 1,247 yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Evans’ ANY/A sits at 6.35 for the year and 4.04 across his past two outings.

The Warhawks should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Josh Johnson (25 receiving yards), Markis McCray (57 rush yards, 278 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Caleb Evans (308 rush yards, five rush TDs) have seen a lot of looks recently.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Free Pick

SU Winner – Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner – Louisiana-Monroe, O/U – Under

Notes

Betting Trends

The O/U for Arkansas State’s last game was set at 61. The under cashed in the team’s 38-14 win over Texas State.

Arkansas State has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.

Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.

Both teams have lost four fumbles this season.

Over its last three games, Arkansas State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Louisiana-Monroe’s last outing was set at 65.5. The under cashed in the 52-7 loss to Appalachian State.

Over its last three games, Louisiana-Monroe is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Red Wolves offense has registered 13 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Warhawks have put up one such play.

The Arkansas State defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Louisiana-Monroe has given up nine such plays.

The Arkansas State offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Louisiana-Monroe has created 13 such runs.

The Red Wolves defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Warhawks have given up 16 such runs.

The Arkansas State D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this year. Louisiana-Monroe has produced 11 sacks.

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