Air Force vs. Colorado State College Football Betting Pick 11/16/19

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The Air Force Falcons (-10) aren’t traveling far to battle their conference nemesis Colorado State Rams at Canvas Stadium. The game will get going at 7:00 p.m. ET and you can view the action live on ESPN2.

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Air Force at Colorado State Betting Odds 11/16/2019

Air Force is favored by 10 points in this MWC matchup. The Falcons are currently getting -400 moneyline odds while picking the big underdog Rams could grant bettors a 3X payout at +300. It appears that there will likely be multiple good live betting scenarios for this game, and the over/under (O/U) has been placed at 60. With the Rams currently getting 10 points, oddsmakers are thinking this has the feel of a 25-35 win for the Falcons.

The Falcons are 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against conference opponents. The Rams are 4-5 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play. Each of these teams has posted a good return this year as the Falcons have gained 3.8 units while the Rams are up 3.3 units.

The Falcons are coming off a 17-13 win over Army West Point on November 2. Donald Hammond III completed only one-of-6 passes for 19 yards and one interception. Kadin Remsberg (54 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and Joshua Stoner (59 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Geraud Sanders (one receptions, 19 yards) and Remsberg (one catch, -3 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Colorado State is coming off of a 37-17 win over UNLV back in Week 10. Patrick O’Brien completed 17-of-27 passes for 234 yards. Christian Hunter (79 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) mounted the running game while Warren Jackson (six receptions, 133 yards) and Dante Wright (four catches, 26 yards) led the receiving attack in the win.

Air Force has run the ball on 86.2 percent of its offensive plays this year, including 89.1 percent across possessions in conference play. Colorado State has an overall rush percentage of 48.5 percent, and has kept it on the ground 50.9 percent of the time against MWC opponents. The Falcons have produced 323 rush yards per game (including 353 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 33 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Rams are logging 157 rush yards per contest (116 in conference) and have 17 total rushing TDs.

If 2019 results can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Falcons may hold an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game. Their running backs has generated 5.4 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.4 to opponents. The Rams have tallied 4.5 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 5.1 to opponents.

The Falcons have averaged 108 yards through the air overall (104 per game versus conference opposition) and have six passing TDs so far. The Rams have put up 312 pass yards per game (286.0 in the MWC) and have 16 total pass scores.

Defensively, Air Force has allowed opponents to run for an average of 97 yards and throw for 217 yards per game. Colorado State has allowed 204.4 yards per game on the ground and 191 to opposing teams in the air. The Rams are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.91 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up a 7.30 ANY/A.

O’Brien has tallied 1,628 yards, six TDs and two INTs for Colorado State. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 8.11 for the year and 7.84 over his last two outings. In the other locker room, Hammond III is up to 696 passing yards this season, and has connected on 32-of-67 attempts with five passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Hammond III has an 8.60 ANY/A for the year, although that number is -1.50 over the past two outings.

These two teams faced off last year with the final result being a 27-19 win for Air Force.

Air Force Falcons at Colorado State Rams NCAA Prediction

SU Winner – Colorado State, ATS Winner – Colorado State, O/U – Under

Notes

Team Betting Trends

The Colorado State defense has notched 22 sacks on the year while Air Force has just 14.

Colorado State has lost 12 fumbles this season while Air Force has lost nine.

The Falcons offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Rams have accounted for 15 such plays.

The Air Force defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Colorado State has given up four such plays.

The Air Force offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Colorado State has created 15 such runs.

The Falcons defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rams have given up 18 such runs.

The O/U for Colorado State’s previous outing was set at 63.5. The under cashed in the 37-17 win over UNLV.

Over its last three games, Colorado State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Over its last three games, Air Force is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for Air Force’s last game was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 17-13 victory over Army West Point.

Air Force has produced 6.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.8 over its last two.

Colorado State has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.7 over its past two.

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