The topic of revenge is polarizing in sports betting circles, especially on the gridiron. I am going to take a look at some excellent betting opportunities using some basic parameters and conditions to spot solid bets that you can make now.
Let us look at teams that have lost two consecutive games to the opponent as the revenge benchmark. By themselves, these double-losers have combined for an unimpressive 1271-1542 straight-up (SU) record with eight ties for 45% straight-up winners since 1990. They have also been a money-churning 1386-1359-76 against-the-spread (ATS) for 50.5% since 1990. Slicing the data by season reveals that these losers have not posted a winning season since 2012 going 434-473-23 ATS for 48%.
Revenge is no greater in the NFL than among divisional foes, and when we solve the data set using that parameter playing ‘ON’ these losers suddenly turns to a winning 462-404-27 ATS record since 1990 and 147-124-6 ATS for 54% since 2010.
What if the team had ten or more wins in the previous season? A good question to ask. 10-win teams dressed in double-revenge and facing a divisional opponent are a solid 47-38-2 ATS for 55% since 1990. Moreover, when these teams are lined by 3.5 points on either side of pick-em they rise to 37-28-2 ATS for 57% since 1990 and 17-11 ATS for 61% ATS since 2010. When the matchup has occurred in the first eight weeks of the season, these revengers move to 14-8 ATS for 64% winners since 2010.
The best bets that are identified by the last slice of the data are on the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 when they host the Green Bay Packers as 3.5-point home favorites and in Week 8 when the Buffalo Bills host the Brady-less New England Patriots as 3-point home favorites.