The course played a lot tougher as expected this past weekend at Muirfield Village, but things backfired a little bit for tournament organizers. The course was too tough for everybody except Jon Rahm, who won the event by three shots. The lack of drama at what had been the signature event of the season took away from what has been a great return thus far.
Now a weaker field heads to the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. With the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational on the horizon, a lot of players are taking the week off to catch a breath. Players we’ve regularly seen priced in the 80/1 and higher range now find themselves in the 50 to 60/1 range or lower with the lesser-quality field.
Once again, we’ll pull our odds from MyBookie Sportsbook for the golf event this week and likely moving forward, as they have one of the better theoretical hold percentages among the offshores for these events. Those odds are down at the bottom of the preview below the content.
Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Tommy Fleetwood highlight the field for the 3M Open. DJ shot a couple of 80s last week in his return at Muirfield Village, but is still listed at +900 to win. Koepka also struggled in the Columbus area, but finds himself at +1200. Finau had a major collapse on Sunday, but still managed to finish in the top 10. He is the third choice at +1400.
This will be the first event for Fleetwood since the return, but he hops right in there at +1600. He did not play either European Tour event in Austria, so he will be shaking off a lot of rust.
Basically, what stands out there most here is that guys like Paul Casey, Matthew Wolff, Lucas Glover, Erik Van Rooyen, Sepp Straka, and others have all had their prices cut down pretty considerably. Guys that were in the 60/1 and 70/1 range are now in the mid 30s and 40s. Guys that were higher than that are in the 50s and 60s.
Last week’s field was the stronger ever in a regular PGA Tour regular season event. This week’s field is not.
This is only the second year of the 3M Open. Last year’s winner was Matthew Wolff by a shot over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa. TPC Twin Cities is a par 72 that plays pretty short at just over 7,100 yards. This course actually opened and hosted some senior events. Tom Lehman assisted with the design and is in the field on a sponsor exemption.
This tree-lined course has a lot of hills and undulations, so the lie of the ball could present some difficulties. There will be a lot of second and third shots that will sit either below the feet or above the feet.
Water is present on a lot of holes, but only five the 18 holes played above par on average last year and there are going to be a lot of eagle putts, with some drivable par 4s and some par 5s that are definitely reachable in two swings. With a winning score of 21-under last year, we could see some tee boxes moved around and possibility see the rough cut a little bit thicker.
Yay or Neigh?
Looking at our horse for course section, we have very little data to go on. This is only the second year of the 3M Open. With the first iteration, the putting numbers weren’t nearly as important as strokes gained on approach or strokes gained off the tee. As mentioned, there are a lot of hazards that can come into play off the tee, including some OB areas in the trees.
Fifty-two players were at least 10-under last year. Only four players in the top 30 in SG: Approach per Data Golf missed the cut. All of them putted very poorly. If you can be average or slightly better with the putter this week and play well on approach and off the tee, you’ll do just fine.
Wolff putted and scrambled a little better than Morikawa last year, which gave him the win. DeChambeau putted well, but the other parts of his game weren’t as strong as the other two.
Adam Hadwin was alone in fourth, with Wyndham Clark and Carlos Ortiz tied for fifth. Lucas Glover, Joey Garber Brian Harman, Troy Merritt, Sam Burns, and Hideki Matsuyama all tied for seventh. Viktor Hovland played well and tied for 13th with Fabian Gomez at 15-under. Daniel Berger, Scott Piercy, Scott Brown, Adam Svensson, and Sungjae Im were among those at 14-under.
Once again, we have a course that benefits the iron players. Five of the six that were tops in the field in SG: Off the Tee last season missed the cut. Five of seven came up short. The one thing that those first five had in common is that they were all bad in SG: APP.
The stage is set here for Erik Van Rooyen at 40/1. The price is not great, given his previous odds, but EVR was third in SG: Approach last week in the Memorial. He is a University of Minnesota product that had to have played this course during his college days. He tied for 22nd last week because his putter faltered, but the irons were dialed in. He did not play this event last year, but he’s in the field here.
Henrik Norlander’s name keeps coming up on SG: APP leaderboards with recent events. Likewise, his price could be better, but he’s +5500 coming off of a top 10 last week. He’s made four straight cuts with two top-15 finishes. Norlander was top 20 in SG: Approach last week, but also second in SG: Putting. He needs a better performance off the tee this week, but he’s +5500 and worth consideration.
DataGolf has a course profile tool that suggests that courses that are the best comps to other courses. TPC Twin Cities compares best to Innisbrook for the Valspar and Sea Island for the RSM Classic. Norlander tied for fifth at the RSM Classic this year.
Paul Casey won the Valspar last year and is in this field around +2500. Ryan Armour, who played well before going back home to Ohio, was T-6 with DJ and Rahm at the Valspar last year. He’s +7000.
Among the short prices, Lucas Glover fits the course profile at +3500, but I’ll look at some bigger numbers. One of them is Dylan Frittelli at +8000. Frittelli played well last week at Muirfield Village and has been solid in the SG: APP department more often than not. Last week, he putted fairly well, too. Frittelli was fifth in SG: APP in the 3M Open last year and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green, but the putter failed him. This is a good week to take a player like him, given the big number and the weaker competition.
Another player that played really well at the RSM was Matthew NeSmith. He’s +12500. He’s had putting issues off and on, but does really well on approach. He’s a player worthy of a look as well.
Spread it around a little bit this week. Van Rooyen (40), Norlander (55), and Fritelli (80) will be on my card this week, but other guys are certainly under consideration as well.
As always, check on matchups and 3-balls with the guys mentioned in the preview.
Odds from MyBookie Sportsbook as of 7/20 at 2 p.m. ET:
|ERIK VAN ROOYEN||+4000|
|RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO||+7000|
|SI WOO KIM||+7000|
|CHARLES HOWELL III||+8000|
|TED POTTER JR||+35000|
|D J TRAHAN||+40000|
|J J HENRY||+60000|
|BO VAN PELT||+75000|