Home Golf 2020 3M Open Betting Odds & Free Picks

2020 3M Open Betting Odds & Free Picks

The course played a lot tougher as expected this past weekend at Muirfield Village, but things backfired a little bit for tournament organizers. The course was too tough for everybody except Jon Rahm, who won the event by three shots. The lack of drama at what had been the signature event of the season took away from what has been a great return thus far.

Now a weaker field heads to the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota. With the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational on the horizon, a lot of players are taking the week off to catch a breath. Players we’ve regularly seen priced in the 80/1 and higher range now find themselves in the 50 to 60/1 range or lower with the lesser-quality field.

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Once again, we’ll pull our odds from MyBookie Sportsbook for the golf event this week and likely moving forward, as they have one of the better theoretical hold percentages among the offshores for these events. Those odds are down at the bottom of the preview below the content.

The Field

Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau, and Tommy Fleetwood highlight the field for the 3M Open. DJ shot a couple of 80s last week in his return at Muirfield Village, but is still listed at +900 to win. Koepka also struggled in the Columbus area, but finds himself at +1200. Finau had a major collapse on Sunday, but still managed to finish in the top 10. He is the third choice at +1400.

This will be the first event for Fleetwood since the return, but he hops right in there at +1600. He did not play either European Tour event in Austria, so he will be shaking off a lot of rust.

Basically, what stands out there most here is that guys like Paul Casey, Matthew Wolff, Lucas Glover, Erik Van Rooyen, Sepp Straka, and others have all had their prices cut down pretty considerably. Guys that were in the 60/1 and 70/1 range are now in the mid 30s and 40s. Guys that were higher than that are in the 50s and 60s.

Last week’s field was the stronger ever in a regular PGA Tour regular season event. This week’s field is not.

Course Profile

This is only the second year of the 3M Open. Last year’s winner was Matthew Wolff by a shot over Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa. TPC Twin Cities is a par 72 that plays pretty short at just over 7,100 yards. This course actually opened and hosted some senior events. Tom Lehman assisted with the design and is in the field on a sponsor exemption.

This tree-lined course has a lot of hills and undulations, so the lie of the ball could present some difficulties. There will be a lot of second and third shots that will sit either below the feet or above the feet.

Water is present on a lot of holes, but only five the 18 holes played above par on average last year and there are going to be a lot of eagle putts, with some drivable par 4s and some par 5s that are definitely reachable in two swings. With a winning score of 21-under last year, we could see some tee boxes moved around and possibility see the rough cut a little bit thicker.

Yay or Neigh?

Looking at our horse for course section, we have very little data to go on. This is only the second year of the 3M Open. With the first iteration, the putting numbers weren’t nearly as important as strokes gained on approach or strokes gained off the tee. As mentioned, there are a lot of hazards that can come into play off the tee, including some OB areas in the trees.

Fifty-two players were at least 10-under last year. Only four players in the top 30 in SG: Approach per Data Golf missed the cut. All of them putted very poorly. If you can be average or slightly better with the putter this week and play well on approach and off the tee, you’ll do just fine.

Wolff putted and scrambled a little better than Morikawa last year, which gave him the win. DeChambeau putted well, but the other parts of his game weren’t as strong as the other two.

Adam Hadwin was alone in fourth, with Wyndham Clark and Carlos Ortiz tied for fifth. Lucas Glover, Joey Garber Brian Harman, Troy Merritt, Sam Burns, and Hideki Matsuyama all tied for seventh. Viktor Hovland played well and tied for 13th with Fabian Gomez at 15-under. Daniel Berger, Scott Piercy, Scott Brown, Adam Svensson, and Sungjae Im were among those at 14-under.

Stats Handicap

Once again, we have a course that benefits the iron players. Five of the six that were tops in the field in SG: Off the Tee last season missed the cut. Five of seven came up short. The one thing that those first five had in common is that they were all bad in SG: APP.

The stage is set here for Erik Van Rooyen at 40/1. The price is not great, given his previous odds, but EVR was third in SG: Approach last week in the Memorial. He is a University of Minnesota product that had to have played this course during his college days. He tied for 22nd last week because his putter faltered, but the irons were dialed in. He did not play this event last year, but he’s in the field here.

BET ON ERIK VAN ROOYEN AT MYBOOKIE SPORTSBOOK

Henrik Norlander’s name keeps coming up on SG: APP leaderboards with recent events. Likewise, his price could be better, but he’s +5500 coming off of a top 10 last week. He’s made four straight cuts with two top-15 finishes. Norlander was top 20 in SG: Approach last week, but also second in SG: Putting. He needs a better performance off the tee this week, but he’s +5500 and worth consideration.

DataGolf has a course profile tool that suggests that courses that are the best comps to other courses. TPC Twin Cities compares best to Innisbrook for the Valspar and Sea Island for the RSM Classic. Norlander tied for fifth at the RSM Classic this year.

Paul Casey won the Valspar last year and is in this field around +2500. Ryan Armour, who played well before going back home to Ohio, was T-6 with DJ and Rahm at the Valspar last year. He’s +7000.

Among the short prices, Lucas Glover fits the course profile at +3500, but I’ll look at some bigger numbers. One of them is Dylan Frittelli at +8000. Frittelli played well last week at Muirfield Village and has been solid in the SG: APP department more often than not. Last week, he putted fairly well, too. Frittelli was fifth in SG: APP in the 3M Open last year and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green, but the putter failed him. This is a good week to take a player like him, given the big number and the weaker competition.

Another player that played really well at the RSM was Matthew NeSmith. He’s +12500. He’s had putting issues off and on, but does really well on approach. He’s a player worthy of a look as well.

Picks

Spread it around a little bit this week. Van Rooyen (40), Norlander (55), and Fritelli (80) will be on my card this week, but other guys are certainly under consideration as well.

As always, check on matchups and 3-balls with the guys mentioned in the preview.

Odds from MyBookie Sportsbook as of 7/20 at 2 p.m. ET:

DUSTIN JOHNSON +900
BROOKS KOEPKA +1200
TONY FINAU +1400
TOMMY FLEETWOOD +1600
PAUL CASEY +2500
MATTHEW WOLFF +2800
BUBBA WATSON +3300
RUSSELL HENLEY +3300
LUCAS GLOVER +3500
HARRIS ENGLISH +3500
ERIK VAN ROOYEN +4000
DOC REDMAN +4500
SAM BURNS +5000
LUKE LIST +5000
BRENDON TODD +5000
SEPP STRAKA +5000
HENRIK NORLANDER +5500
PATRICK RODGERS +5500
BRIAN HARMAN +5500
RYAN MOORE +6000
CARLOS ORTIZ +6600
WILL GORDON +6600
CHRIS KIRK +6600
JHONATTAN VEGAS +7000
KRISTOFFER VENTURA +7000
RAFAEL CABRERA BELLO +7000
SI WOO KIM +7000
RYAN ARMOUR +7000
TOM LEWIS +7000
TROY MERRITT +8000
MAX HOMA +8000
CHARLEY HOFFMAN +8000
ALEX NOREN +8000
SCOTT STALLINGS +8000
RICHY WERENSKI +8000
WYNDHAM CLARK +8000
CHARLES HOWELL III +8000
BERND WIESBERGER +8000
DYLAN FRITTELLI +8000
SAM RYDER +9000
EMILIANO GRILLO +10000
TALOR GOOCH +10000
ADAM SCHENK +10000
MATTHIAS SCHWAB +10000
JASON KOKRAK +11000
CHASE SEIFFERT +11000
BEN MARTIN +11000
KYLE STANLEY +11000
PAT PEREZ +11000
WES ROACH +11000
PETER UIHLEIN +11000
MICHAEL THOMPSON +11000
AARON WISE +11000
TOM HOGE +11000
SCOTT PIERCY +12500
KYOUNG-HOON LEE +12500
MATTHEW NESMITH +12500
JASON DUFNER +12500
ADAM LONG +12500
CHESSON HADLEY +12500
BRANDON HAGY +12500
CHARL SCHWARTZEL +12500
CAMERON TRINGALE +14000
HARRY HIGGS +14000
DANNY LEE +14000
KEITH MITCHELL +14000
SEUNG-YUL NOH +14000
XINJUN ZHANG +15000
AUSTIN COOK +15000
HUDSON SWAFFORD +15000
CHRIS STROUD +15000
STEWART CINK +16000
RUSSELL KNOX +16000
VAUGHN TAYLOR +16000
JOSEPH BRAMLETT +16000
PATTON KIZZIRE +16000
BRICE GARNETT +17500
DENNY MCCARTHY +17500
CAMERON DAVIS +17500
ROGER SLOAN +20000
SCOTT HARRINGTON +20000
LUKE DONALD +20000
BEAU HOSSLER +20000
SAHITH THEEGALA +20000
JJ SPAUN +20000
NICK WATNEY +20000
SEAMUS POWER +22500
ANDREW PUTNAM +22500
FABIAN GOMEZ +22500
JOHNSON WAGNER +22500
ROBERTO CASTRO +22500
RHEIN GIBSON +22500
TIM WILKINSON +22500
BRONSON BURGOON +25000
BRIAN GAY +25000
SCOTT BROWN +25000
JOSH TEATER +25000
GEORGE MCNEILL +25000
ZACK SUCHER +25000
KRAMER HICKOK +25000
PETER MALNATI +25000
VINCENT WHALEY +25000
DEREK ERNST +25000
BO HOAG +27500
SHAWN STEFANI +27500
KEVIN TWAY +27500
BILL HAAS +27500
GRAYSON MURRAY +30000
ROBERT STREB +30000
AARON BADDELEY +30000
JAMIE LOVEMARK +35000
CAMERON PERCY +35000
SANGMOON BAE +35000
CHRIS BAKER +35000
DAVID HEARN +35000
DOUG GHIM +35000
RYAN BLAUM +35000
ALEX CEJKA +35000
TED POTTER JR +35000
MARK ANDERSON +40000
HANK LEBIODA +40000
ROBBY SHELTON +40000
NELSON LEDESMA +40000
D J TRAHAN +40000
TOMMY GAINEY +40000
SEBASTIAN CAPPELEN +40000
RYAN BREHM +40000
CHAD CAMPBELL +40000
DAVID LINGMERTH +40000
ARJUN ATWAL +40000
KJ CHOI +40000
CHASE KOEPKA +50000
RICKY BARNES +50000
JONATHAN BYRD +50000
ROB OPPENHEIM +50000
GREG CHALMERS +50000
TYLER MCCUMBER +50000
BEN TAYLOR +60000
MICHAEL GLIGIC +60000
J J HENRY +60000
JOHN MERRICK +60000
ANGUS FLANAGAN +60000
MICHAEL KIM +75000
TOM LEHMAN +75000
JOHN SENDEN +75000
DOMINIC BOZZELLI +75000
TIM HERRON +75000
MICHAEL GELLERMAN +75000
MATT EVERY +75000
BO VAN PELT +75000
PETER KUEST +100000
MARTIN TRAINER +100000
CHRIS COUCH +100000

 

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