2019 NFL Home-Away Power Ratings

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Thankfully the regular season is over and it was ugly with the sides as predicted last week, as we had teams like Houston and Buffalo, who had absolutely no incentive to win and they played like it. That, along with not accounting for QB injuries definitely hurt, but wasn’t the sole reason for the dismal effort out of the numbers this year. Last year we were a combined 98-86-7 (53.3%) so this year definitely a big disappointment.

Thankfully, all of the games count from here out, so there’s no worrying about who will be playing or if you’re going to get the top effort out of a team.

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There were a number of narrow misses by a half-point and they were Buffalo +2.5 (need 3), New England under 44.5 (need 45), Vikings +7.5 (need 8) but just the two plays for record keeping purposes.

Sides (19-30-1):  Pats -5

Totals (31-35):  Bills under 43.5

Team Home Rating Away Rating
AFC East
New England Patriots 31 – (-5) 23 – (-5)
Buffalo Bills 20 – (-2) 18 – (-5)
New York Jets 21 – 5 12 – 2
Miami Dolphins 21 – 8 17 -8
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – (-4) 16 – (-3)
Cleveland Browns 24 – 1 25 – 3
Baltimore Ravens 27 – (-1) 25 – (-6)
Cincinnati Bengals 22 – 6 20 – 3
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 27 – 0 22 – (-2)
Jacksonville Jaguars 18 – (-6) 18- 0
Houston Texans 25 – (-2) 25 – (-1)
Tennessee Titans 24 – (-2) 18 – (-6)
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs 30 – (-3) 34 – 2
Los Angeles Chargers 24 – 0 26 – (-4)
Denver Broncos 19 – (-3) 20 – (-4)
Oakland Raiders 23 – 4 19 – 5
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 22 – (-4) 25 – 3
Dallas Cowboys 28 – (-1) 20 – (-4)
New York Giants 20 – 4 26 – 3
Washington Redskins 17 – 3 17 – (-2)
NFC North
Chicago Bears 24 – (-4) 21 – (-6)
Green Bay Packers 25 – (-2) 23 – (-1)
Minnesota Vikings 25 – (-4) 25 – (-2)
Detroit Lions 23 – 5 19 – 0
NFC South
New Orleans Saints 30 – 2 29 – (-4)
Atlanta Falcons  27 – 2 23 – 3
Carolina Panthers 26 – 2 21 – 3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – 2 28 -7
NFC West
Los Angeles Rams 33 – 4 26 – (-4)
Seattle Seahawks 28 – 1 24 – (-1)
San Francisco 49ers 25 – (-2) 23 – 1
Arizona Cardinals 19 – 4 20 – 5

 

Power Rating Key: You’ll see two sets of numbers listed after each team. The first number is a team’s offensive rating, while the second is a team’s defensive rating. These are separated by home ratings and away ratings. For example, the Arizona Cardinals get a 19 for offensive rating at home and a 4 for their defensive rating at home. On the road, the Cardinals have a 20 for their offensive rating and a 5 for their defensive rating.

To get a predicted score, simply add a team’s offensive number to its opponents defensive number, using the home numbers for the home team and the away numbers for the visiting team. If Arizona is at Seattle, we would have the Cardinals’ road offensive rating of 20 plus Seattle’s home defensive rating of 1 for a projection of 21 points. Seattle’s home offensive rating of 28 would be added to Arizona’s road defensive rating of 5 to get 33, so our projected score is 33-21 for the Seahawks.

If Seattle is at Arizona, we would have Seattle’s road offensive rating of 24 plus Arizona’s home defensive rating of 4 for a projection of 28 points. Arizona’s home offensive rating of 19 would be added to Seattle’s road defensive rating of (-1) to get 17, so our projected score is 28-18 in favor of the Seahawks.