Germany meets Nigeria at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble, France, Saturday, June 22, 2019, in the first clash of the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup Round of 16. The real business starts with the knockout stage, so the stake is huge for both sides, and Nigeria will have a mountain to climb against the runaway fave Germany.
Germany vs. Nigeria
Three-way: 1: Germany -700; X: +700 Draw; 2: Nigeria +1400
Spread -2: Germany -125; Nigeria +105
Total 3 Goals: Over -125; Under +100
Both Teams to Score: Yes +160; No -225
With all three wins and a 6:0 goal difference, Germany topped the Group B five points ahead of Spain and China. Martina Voss-Tecklenburg’s girls defeated China 1-0 in the opener and outlasted Spain 1-0 in the second round of the group stage. They routed South Africa 4-0 in the third round to set up the matchup with Nigeria in the elimination round.
Midfielder Sara Dabritz is leading the way for Germany with a couple of goals in the group stage. The 19-year old Giulia Gwinn scored one goal along with an assist, while the captain Alexandra Popp, Melanie Leupolz, and Lina Magull all added one goal each. Germany played some sturdy defense over the last two weeks, so the experienced goalie Almuth Schult didn’t have any problems to keep her net intact.
- Germany is undefeated in 14 straight games, recording 12 wins in that span
- Seven of Germany’s last 12 wins came by two or more goals
- Nine of Germany’s last 15 games had three or more goals in the total
The Super Falcons made it to the knockout stage as one of four best third-placed teams in the group phase. They recorded one win and two losses with a 2:4 goal difference to finish behind France and Norway in the Group A. Nigeria lost 3-0 to Norway and 1-0 to France, but the Super Falcons defeated South Korea 2-0 in the second round to earn their place in the second round.
Thomas Dennerby’s girls were pretty lucky to earn that one win over South Korea whereas Do-Yeon Kim scored an own goal to break the deadlock. Forward Asisat Oshoala made it 2-0 with 15 minutes left in the second half. Dennerby can count on some experienced players including the 36-year old defender Onome Ebi, but there are plenty of young girls who will have to cope with pressure against Germany.
- Nigeria lost five of its last nine outings along with three wins and a draw
- Seven of Nigeria’s last 11 games had three or more goals in the total
- Just one of Nigeria’s last seven contests saw both teams scoring
Germany is a massive favorite for a reason, having much better players at all positions than Nigeria. Also, Germany is a two-time world champion, while Nigeria reached the knockout stage just twice in eight appearances at the World Cup and has never won a game in the elimination round.
However, Nigeria played solid defense in their ultimate game of the group stage against France, and the hosts needed a penalty kick late in the second half to beat the Super Falcons. I expect Germany to dominate Nigeria here, but it doesn’t mean we’ll see a bunch of goals in Nigeria’s net. If you’re satisfied with -200 odds, take Germany to win by two or more goals.
I would stick with the side bet. If we see four or more goals on this one, Germany will certainly cover the spread.
The Pick: Germany -2 (-125)