November is knocking on the door, so it’s time for another look at the college basketball championship odds, as the season begins Nov. 5, so really less than a week away, which isn’t a whole lot of time to get ready.
We first looked at the odds in June and then again towards the end of August and we’ve seen some pretty decent movement on some teams since out last time, with the most notable team the Virginia Cavaliers, who saw their odds move from +750 to +2500. The Cavs did lose three starters from last years team, but could be a dangerous team once the tournament rolls around. Then again, it’s awfully tough to repeat.
Kansas saw their odds drop quite a bit, as the Jayhawks moved from +1650 in August to +850, which probably takes away any value there. Florida and Louisville were both +2000 in August and both teams saw their odds decrease to +1300 and Louisville probably offers better value than Florida, although both teams should be strong. I just have Louisville rated a little bit higher right now, although that could easily change over the course of the season.
We’ve listed the odds on all the teams who are below 200-to-1 to win the championship and there are plenty of teams who aren’t even listed, such as my Eastern Washington Eagles. But other than being able to tell friends I stand to win $250,000 if the Eagles win the title, there’s no reason for me to plop $50 down on EWU, as they have no chance.
It goes without saying that you’re much better off sticking to one of the top teams from the better conferences. Teams may make the ‘Cinderella Run’ in the NCAA Tournament, but the clock usually strikes midnight in the Sweet 16. Even Wichita State’s memorable run in the 2012-13 tournament still saw Louisville, the second betting choice before the season began, wind up winning the title.
The following season saw UConn win the title and the Huskies were No. 14 in the odds at the start of the year, while Duke was No. 4 at the start of the year in the 2014-15 season. Villanova was tied for No. 10 in 2015-16, North Carolina was No. 8 in 2016-17 and Villanova was tied for No. 7 when the ‘Cats won the title in 2017-18. So while a nice long shot might sound enticing, history says to stick with the usual teams.
2019-20 NCAA Basketball Championship Odds
|Virginia, Texas Tech||+2500|
|Washington, Maryland, Ohio State, Oregon, Arizona||+3500|
|Houston, Florida State, Auburn||+7000|
|Xavier, Utah State||+7500|
|Connecticut, BYU, LSU, Marquette, Wisconsin, Alabama A & M||+10000|
|Texas, Georgia, Iowa, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Mississippi State, Syracuse||+12000|
|UCLA, USC, West Virginia, Arizona State||+12500|
|VCU, Miami, Fla.||+15000|