Preakness Picks

"Maryland, My Maryland" will ring loudly on Saturday, as twelve champion three year olds will run 1 3/16 miles at the storied racetrack of Pimlico. The 135th Preakness Stakes has horse racing betting action junkies ready to rock and roll! Here at Bang the Book, we've got all of the insight that you need to keep an eye on before heading to the mutuels and placing your bets on the big race!

The words that will inevitably ring loudly at the Preakness on Saturday are those from jockey Calvin Borel. Following his fantastic race aboard Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby, Borel declared that his horse "will win the Triple Crown." No such confidence beamed from him last year after guiding Mine That Bird to one of the biggest upsets in horse racing history, so everyone involved has to wonder whether his prophecy will come true or not.

There's no reason to believe that Super Saver can't make his way onto the board once again when he opposes these three year olds. This is clearly a weaker field than the one that he ran up against at the Kentucky Derby, and weeding through traffic theoretically won't be nearly the same problem, especially with a fast track being the expectation. However, there are clearly plenty of horses that were planted in this field for one reason and one reason only, and that's to make sure that Borel doesn't have a chance at his Triple Crown. Super Saver will start in the #8 position.

One of those horses is pretty clearly Northern Giant, who will start four slots closer to the rail than Super Saver in position #4. It took Northern Giant six races just to break his maiden, and he hasn't performed well in graded races either. His job is to just do one thing, and that's to draw the leaders and stalkers up to a faster pace than what they are comfortable with. Once Northern Giant's time at the front of the field is over, look for him to hug the rail and merely get in the way of Super Saver. Don't even bother wasting your time trying to put this horse on your board, as there is a reason that he is going to go off as one of the biggest long shots in Preakness Stakes history.

There are a few other new contenders that didn't run in the Kentucky Derby as well. However, we're not overly keen about backing #1 Aikenite, #2 Schoolyard Dreams, #3 Pleasant Prince, #5 Yawanna Twist or #9 Caracortado either.

Let's turn our attention back to the horses that did run in the Super Bowl of horse racing for a bit. The third place finisher from the Kentucky Derby, Paddy O'Prado is back for more in hopes that the luck of the Irish carries him to the finish line first at Pimlico. The grey thoroughbred is starting in post #10, and once again, he's going to be quite the question mark coming into the race. O'Prado might've just found success at the Derby because of his Irish turf pedigree. Running in the slop was very similar to many of his turf races. However, with a fast track expected, the odds just don't warrant backing one of the more loveable three year olds that horse racing has to offer this year.

#6 Jackson Bend finished a very disappointing 13th in the Kentucky Derby, but after finishing runner up to Eskendereya in his previous two graded races, trainer Nick Zito elected to try to send him back out after this weak crop of three year olds once again. Jockey Mike Smith has been given the vote of confidence to stay aboard Jackson Bend regardless of his lousy run at Churchill Downs. This is a sneaky horse to throw into your exotics, but we're not much for his chances to win the race.

We backed Dublin at the Kentucky Derby and were burned by his seventh place finish, but trainer D. Wayne Lukas immediately tabbed him as a runner in the Preakness Stakes. Perhaps it is coincidence that his "rabbit horse," Northern Giant was also sent out there to try to lure the favorites into a speed race? There's no doubt that Dublin will be near the lead at the outset unless he just gets shoved so far to the outside that he reaches the point of no real return following a six or seven wide battle, but Lukas knows that his Dublin's jockey, Garrett Gomez, will probably run a significantly different race here at the Preakness than his colt tried to run at the Derby. Most certainly, even from the far outside, getting a 10-1 or better price on Dublin, a horse that hit the board in the Arkansas Derby, Rebel Stakes, and Southwest, is a steal.

There was one horse that didn't run in the Kentucky Derby that we very intentionally left out of the discussions earlier. #11 First Dude may have drawn a miserable outside post, but if he can jolt out to the front of the pack before the first turn, he'll have a supreme advantage over some of his further inside contenders that don't want to set the pace. The job of jockey Ramon Dominguez is of paramount importance. If he can ride First Dude to the rail quickly, he'll probably lead for a good chunk of this race. If not, it's hard to see how he can compete. Stamina won't be an issue, as good breeding (A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew are in his bloodlines) and strong past performances at 1 1/8 miles proves that this horse could go the distance. If there's a wire-to-wire winner in this race, it'll be First Dude.

The final horse yet to be discussed in this field was the one that went off as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. However, Lookin At Lucky draws a much more favorable post position for this race at #7 than he did when he was boxed in on the rail right out of the blocks at Churchill Downs. Trainer Bob Baffert was non-committal to his top three year old running in the Preakness Stakes, but the prospects of going up against a weak field and a what many view to be a paper champion were just too solid to overlook. Unlike in the Derby, when jockey Garrett Gomez fell all the way back to 18th position and clawed his way back to finish sixth, new jockey Martin Garcia should be focused on getting a solid start and letting the colt do his work from there.

Even though we're probably only going to be getting 3-1 or 4-1 odds on Lookin At Lucky, we think that his price tag in this race is just ripe enough to bet. Had he won the Kentucky Derby, he would almost certainly be a 1/5 or 1/9 favorite in this race. Just thinking about that type of a price differential makes us want to make a sizeable bet to win, place, and show on the #7. Keep an eye on the show prices as well, as Super Saver could take a huge chunk of the show money, which could leave you getting a better price on the other horses in this field to show than to win!

That being said, both First Dude and Dublin are going to be in the discussion, and if Lukas gets his wish, Northern Giant can take Super Saver out of the equation. For our money, at that point, it becomes a five horse race with Paddy O'Prado and Jackson Bend in the mix as well.
As we see it happening, First Dude will have his way at the outset of the race. We believe that Dublin is once again good enough to find his way to the board, but in the end, both will be passed by Baffert's gem, as Lookin At Lucky steals the second leg of the Triple Crown.

#7 Lookin At Lucky - #11 First Dude - #12 Dublin