2010 Belmont Stakes Picks

The allure of the 2010 Belmont Stakes isn't going to be there this year, as there really aren't any fantastic storylines, nor are either of the past Triple Crown winners running in the race. However, a crop of a dozen three year olds will take aim at most grueling run in horse racing, the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes, on Saturday afternoon.

Even though neither Super Saver nor Lookin At Lucky are running in this race, both second place finishers in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes are running. #6 Ice Box opened up as the 3-1 morning line favorite for the Belmont Stakes, and for good reason. He was the Florida Derby winner as a 20-1 shot, and promptly came back and had a fantastic run in the Kentucky Derby, finishing as the runner up. Jockey Jose Lezcano was aboard Ice Box in both of those races and will get the ride once again on Saturday. The issue that this horse may have has nothing to do with distance, but instead, the fact that the speed of the race may not be suitable to call for a dramatic comeback like Ice Box had at the Kentucky Derby.

We may have correctly predicted First Dude to finish in second place behind Lookin At Lucky, but not many others were on board with that call, as the exotic prices were all off the charts thanks to his presence on the board. First Dude will draw the identical #11 post in the Belmont that he had in the Preakness Stakes, and his strategy isn't going to differ any. He jumped out of the blocks and successfully made it all the way to the rail by the time the first turn came around at Pimlico in spite of his outside position, and he nearly ran the entire distance with the lead in the race. It's not often that you see a wire-to-wire winner at the Belmont Stakes, but with a lack of speed in this race, don't be overly shocked if First Dude can pull it off.

The fields in the Triple Crown races only seem to get worse and worse this year, and just like in the Preakness Stakes where it felt like the worst horses were lining up on the inside, the same is true here at Belmont. #1 Dave In Dixie and #2 Spangled Star weren't even successful stakes race horses. Spangled Star has especially been an embarrassment, as he needed to run five races before breaking his maiden and has only run in one graded stakes race, that being the Grade III Withers against a field even weaker than this. Spangled Star finished third.

We can add #10 Stay Put to the list of contenders for this race that really aren't contenders. He only has run in two graded stakes races before in his life, finishing fifth in both. At least this horse can say that he has a nose for the finish line, as he has won three times in his career, but victory #4 almost certainly won't come at the Belmont this weekend.

There are a number of Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes entrants into this field that didn't perform as well on the Triple Crown's other stages as they would've hoped for.

#4 Make Music For Me nearly hit the board in the Kentucky Derby, finishing fourth. This race may suit him better because of the longer distance and the fact that he has a fantastic pedigree that suggests that the mile and a half shouldn't be a tremendous issue. With a favorable post position in the #4 hole, this is going to be a colt to keep a very close eye on.

The same is true for #9 Stately Victor. Many thought that a victory in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes was the perfect prep run for this horse to make a move in the Kentucky Derby as a longshot, but an eighth place finish didn't really confirm or deny whether or not that win in the Blue Grass was justified or not.

#12 Interactif was nearly entered into the Kentucky Derby, but was scratched by trainer Todd Pletcher right before the entry cutoff. No one really believed that Interactif was good enough to win the Run for the Roses on a clean track, but with turf in his background, the slop was perfect for him. Still, Pletcher decided that it would be better to run his colt on turf. However, he hasn't been entered into a race since that point. Now, Interactif has been brought back as Pletcher's only entry into this race after Super Saver put forth a disappointing effort in the Preakness Stakes and wasn't brought to Belmont Racetrack.

The winner of the final prep race at Belmont before the biggest race of the year there has traditionally done quite well in the Belmont Stakes. Remember Summer Bird last year or Birdstone in 2004? Both ran well in the prep races at Belmont before going on to win the third leg of the Triple Crown. It should come as no surprise that both horses also have bloodline ties to Mine That Bird, who was the darling of last year's Triple Crown.

This year, both #5 Fly Down and #7 Drosselmeyer are coming off of great runs in the Grade II Dwyer, run on May 10th at Belmont.

Fly Down might have been the horse to win the race by six lengths, but it must be noted that the horse with the better overall body of work remains Drosselmeyer. As the odds on favorite to win the Dwyer, Drosselmeyer was tossed around following a very uncharacteristically slow start. He should be working right on the pace of the race and not having to dodge through as many horses as he did to come up to show at the Dwyer.

As a result, we think that this may be the best horse in this field. Don't get us wrong. We still think that Ice Box has the most impressive resume of the bunch, and we have loved First Dude since we saw him enter the Preakness Stakes. The pace will still be set by First Dude, and we don't doubt that he will be in the running right at the wire as well. Interactif, Fly Down, and Make Music For Me are going to be horses to watch.
But in the end, this is a two horse duel between Ice Box and Drosselmeyer. The familiarity of the track is where we are going to give the nod to, and we're a lot more accepting of the idea of getting 12-1 on the morning line odds for the #7, as opposed to the 3-1 morning line odds on the #6. An exacta on these two could pay over $300 with ease no matter which one is on top.

#7 Drosselmeyer - #6 Ice Box - #11 First Dude