Planning on watching today’s Penguins and Mastodons game? Catch the action at Allen County War Memorial Coliseum in Fort Wayne, IN, as the Mastodons hosts this showdown at 2:00 ET on ESPN+. Youngstown State is favored by -4 in this Horizon League conference showdown. The game’s over/under is currently at 153.5 points.


The Pick: Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons +4

This game will be played at Allen County War Memorial Coliseum at 2:00 ET on Sunday, February 4th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 73-71 in favor of the Mastodons.
  • Not only will Purdue Fort Wayne pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +4.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 153.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Can the Penguins Grab a Win on the Road?

Youngstown State is coming off an 88-77 win over Wright State, and they are now 17-6 overall and 9-2 in Horizon League play. The Penguins have won four in a row and are 11-0 when favored this season.

On the road, Youngstown State has gone 6-5, and they are currently on a three-game road winning streak. For the season, the Penguins have an average scoring margin of +4.5 on the road.

Youngstown State has been solid vs. the spread this season, going 12-6. They have been even better when favored, going 8-3 vs. the spread in those games. Their road ATS record is 7-4 and they are 3-0 vs. the spread in their last 3 road games. As the favorite, their ATS record is 7-3 in their last 10 games.

Youngstown State’s over/under record for the season is 7-10-1. On average, their games have finished with 147.6 points compared to an average over/under line of 150.2, resulting in an average margin versus the over/under line of -2.6. Today’s line of 153.5 is higher than the average scoring total in their last three games (141) and their last five games (146). So far, 12 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line.

Youngstown State recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 88 points against Wright State. This output exceeded their season average of 82 points per game. On the offensive front, the Penguins have a season-long field goal percentage of 46%, ranking 122nd nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 230th in terms of percentage and 36th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Youngstown State defense is giving up an average of 68.9 points per contest. The Youngstown State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 77 points and allowed Wright State to connect on 6 threes.

Does Purdue Fort Wayne Stand a Chance at Home?

As an underdog, Purdue Fort Wayne has gone 3-4 this season. They are 5-6 in conference play and 14-8 overall. At home, they have a record of 7-3, and their average scoring margin at home is +9.9.

Over their last 10 home games, the Mastodons have gone 7-3. They are coming off a 68-65 loss to Milwaukee, and their record in their last five games at home is 2-3. So far this season, they have been the underdog in seven games.

As the underdog, Purdue Fort Wayne has gone 3-3-1 against the spread this season. Their overall ATS mark for the year is 10-9-1. At home, the Mastodons have an ATS record of 5-5 and they are just 4-5 vs. the spread in their last 10 home games. In their last three home games, Purdue Fort Wayne is 0-3 ATS.

So far this season, the over/under record in Purdue Fort Wayne games is 11-9. Today’s over/under line of 153.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games this year (151.8). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 132 points and their OU record has fallen to 0-3 in that stretch.

Compared to their season average of 81.8 points per game, Purdue Fort Wayne struggled in their previous game. Against Milwaukee, the Mastodons scored 65 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 31.9%. The top scorer for the Mastodons was Jalen Jackson with 17 points, while Rasheed Bello also chipped in with 13 points.

On the defensive side, Purdue Fort Wayne is currently hovering around the NCAA’s average for points allowed, conceding an average of 71.0 points per game. Purdue Fort Wayne will look once again to perform well on defense, holding Milwaukee to just 31% shooting in their most recent game.