NFL Pick: New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Updated: October 7, 2013
Monday, Oct. 7, 8:30 p.m. (ET)
NFL Betting Odds: VietBet
Pointspread: Atlanta -10.5
Total Line: 43.5
You could have made some money betting people that the Jets would be 2-2 straight-up after their first four games but that has been the case. Last Sunday they reverted back to their old form in a 38-13 loss to Tennessee as 3.5-point road underdogs, but they beat Buffalo and played New England tough in their previous two games to go 3-1 against the spread. The total has gone OVER in their last two contests after staying UNDER in their first two.
New York decided to go with rookie quarterback Geno Smith as its starter with Mark Sanchez lost for the season and as expected the offense has struggled to score with an average of 17 points a game. Smith has thrown for 1,090 yards in his first four games but he has been picked off eight times and sacked 14 times. The main reason the Jets have remained competitive is a solid effort on defense. It is ranked fourth in the NFL against the run and eighth against the pass.
There is some genuine concern in Atlanta after losing as many games in the first four weeks as it did all last season. The 1-3 start both SU and ATS already has the Falcons three games in back of New Orleans in the NFC South title race. All four games have been close affairs with an average margin of victory of just five points and the total has gone OVER in the last three.
Matt Ryan has thrown for 1,330 yards and eight touchdowns while completing 66.5 percent of his passes, but this offense has really struggled to run the ball with an average of just 82 yards a game. It does not help that offseason acquisition Steven Jackson continues to be hampered with a sore hamstring. The Falcons’ defense has also been beat-up the first four weeks with a number of players dealing with lingering health issues and it has taken its toll on the field. This unit is ranked fifth against the run, but it is 26th against the pass and 21st in points allowed.
The Jets are the kind of team that can hang around for four quarters against most teams in the NFL and given Atlanta’s current form that will be the case on Monday night. Look for the Falcons to get the SU win at home, but the free NFL pick in this contest is the Jets and the 10.5 points.
Atlanta 24 New York 16
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