Last Updated: 2017-06-01
A push for me and a push or a win for most who followed, as Atlanta closed as 7.5-point nearly everywhere. Today we have just one game with Phoenix at Chicago, but it is a bit of an interesting one. Chicago has won three of the last four games, although the Mercury are 10-6 the past six seasons and three of the last four games have landed under the total. Phoenix is favored by 5 and the total is 159.
Phoenix enters the game scoring 79.0 points per game and allowing 67.2. On the road, the Mercury average 78 points a game and allow 72. Phoenix has typically been a good under team at home, but a decent over team on the road. The Sun have played four of their first five games at home, so it remains to be seen if that trend is going to hold up, at least pertaining to the road games, as three of the first four in Phoenix landed on the under.
Chicago is averaging 71.7 points on the year and allowing 76.3. At home, the Sky have scored 76.3, but allowed 90, surrendering 97 to Connecticut and 91 to Atlanta. The Sky are 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home for the season and the games haven’t really been close, as an 8-point loss to Atlanta is the best they’ve done so far.
It’s obvious Chicago greatly misses Elena Della Donne and you have to wonder what they were thinking when they traded her for Kahleah Copper and the No. 2 pick in the 2017 draft. You don’t trade the 2015 MVP of the league for a second-year player and a draft pick. Cooper is averaging 6.0 points per game and the player drafted is Alaina Coates, who suffered an ankle injury in March, before she was drafted, and has yet to play. It’s no wonder why they are struggling, especially on defense where Della Donne is a 6-foot-5 presence in the middle.
My numbers are calling for a much-higher scoring game than the oddsmakers, as I have Phoenix winning 91-90. Chicago has already been dinged three points offensively in my ratings from the beginning of the year to what they are now, so it’s a question of how much lower they will go before getting things sorted out. I’ll go ahead and follow the numbers and take over 159 and hope Chicago’s defensive problems at home continue for at least another game.