Who Will Lead the NFL in Passing Yards for the 2019 Season?

Date | AuthorAram Tolegian

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

The favorites look vulnerable and several longshots can have a promising case made for them. What else can you ask for when scanning the NFL futures betting menu?

But we’re not talking about Super Bowl futures or conference and division odds. NFL futures that involve teams look far too chalky (and the results often are) for us to feel like it’s worth taking chances on big prices.

It’s a different story entirely when it comes to offerings like player props and futures. So when Caesars Entertainment released its season totals props for players on Monday, the salivation began almost immediately.

Our focus is specifically on the quarterbacks. Both the season total passing yards over/under props along with the odds to lead the league in passing yards are now posted and they present some interesting options.

Last season, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes appeared ready to reward those who took a fat 33-1 on him to lead the league in passing yards. Mahomes lead Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger by 150 yards entering the final game of the season, but with nothing to play for, he sat the second half of Kansas City’s 35-3 win over Oakland. Meanwhile, Roethlisberger and the Steelers were fighting for their playoffs lives and Big Ben’s 287 yards in a win over Cincinnati was enough to give him the title.

As painful as it was for Mahomes backers, the almost-score by what was (at the time) an unknown commodity in Mahomes might have been a signal of things to come. It also reminds that the NFL’s collection of elite quarterback are mostly a group that’s getting older.

Mahomes is the favorite this season to lead the league in passing. He’s also got the highest over/under yards total at 4558.5. But how much do you want of Mahomes with the possibility of him losing speedy top target Tyreek Hill to suspension? Not only that, the league will have had a full offseason to study up on what exactly the Chiefs were doing during last season’s explosion. Then you throw in that Kansas City will face a tougher schedule, having been to the Super Bowl last season, and we want no piece of Mahomes as the 7-2 favorite.

The second choice in the wagering is Matt Ryan at 5.5-1. And here’s where we start to get involved financially.

Ryan finished third behind Roethlisberger and Mahomes last season, just 205 yards out of the lead. You know what we think of Mahomes, and Roethlisberger lost arguably the best receiver in the league during the offseason when Antonio Brown landed with the Raiders. At age 37, we want no part of betting on a Big Ben repeat.

Sure, Ryan doesn’t offer the dreamy odds as some of the others we’ll be playing, but in our opinion he’s a decent value. He should be the favorite. Ryan’s season total yards over/under is posted at 4455.5. That’s the second highest total behind Mahomes. Beside the obvious factors in Ryan’s favor, i.e. amazing cast of receivers and playing home games indoors, we also like that the Falcons have made huge investments in their offensive line in recent years.

It has definitely paid off. According to Warren Sharp’s 2019 Football Preview, Ryan and his receiving corps have ranked top six in roster health for the past two seasons. Not only that, Ryan has nine consecutive seasons making 16 starts.

Our next bet will come on Andrew Luck at 7-1. Luck finished fifth in passing yards last season with 4,593 yards. Any improvement, and there are reasons to think a quarterback entering his prime will improve, and Luck is going to be right in the thick of the race. Throw in that Luck was sacked only 18 times last season and that shows us that the Colts have the kind of offensive line we want protecting our bet.

The Colts signed Devin Funchess to give Luck a nice big target to go with speedster TY Hilton. They also draftred receiver Parris Campbell out of Ohio St. and he’s already getting rave reviews from coaches about his speed. This will be Year 2 for head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni. The second year in a new system often yields even better cohesion. If that happens, Luck just might cash for us.

The next two bets will be substantially smaller, but that’s okay because of the odds involved. Jared Goff at 12-1 is pretty nice, considering he finished fourth in passing yards last season (4,688) despite losing key receiver Cooper Kupp in mid-November last season.

With Kupp back, the passing part of the Rams offense should resume piling up the yards. We can’t say that about the running game, though, where questions still persist over the health of running back Todd Gurley. Depending on which you believe – the run sets up the pass, or absent a strong run game the pass becomes more relied upon – Goff could see his attempts increase, which would lead to more yards.

Rams head coach Sean McVay is viewed by many as a offensive savant. He’s certainly worked his magic on Goff and that should continue. We’ll take 12-1 on a guy who still has some upside and was right in the thick of the race last season.

Our last play comes on Raiders quarterback Derek Carr at 25-1. You’ll definitely have to view the glass as half full to join us in this one. In some circles, people are questioning whether Carr will ever be a worthwhile NFL quarterback. But let’s remember he did throw for over 4,000 yards last season and will be in Year 2 of head coach Jon Gruden’s system.

The Raiders have certainly tried to give Carr everything he needs to succeed. Landing receivers Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams in the offseason give Carr the best weapons upgrade in the league. The Raiders didn’t protect Carr well last season as he was sacked a whopping 51 times! Signing right tackle Trent Brown should certainly help protect Carr better.

Let’s not forget that the Raiders are run by a former quarterback in general manager Mike Mayock. All signs point to the team taking an offense-first approach, which makes sense since this is 2019, after all.

As for bet structure. Our best advice is to structure your plays according to the odds with the biggest bets coming on Ryan and Luck, followed by smaller plays at higher odds on Goff and Carr, respectively.

NFL Total Pass Yards OVER/UNDER (Caesars Entertainment)

Patrick Mahomes 4558.5
Matt Ryan 4455.5
Ben Roethlisberger 4405.5
Aaron Rodgers 4349.5
Andrew Luck 4289.5
Jameis Winston 4260.5
Tom Brady 4249.5
Philip Rivers 4220.5
Kirk Cousins 4189.5
Drew Brees 4189.5
Baker Mayfield 4186.5
Matt Stafford 4032.5
Jared Goff 3999.5
Deshaun Watson 3999.5
Derek Carr 3849.5
Mitch Trubisky 3744.5
Nick Foles 3645.5
Carson Wentz 3628.5
Russell Wilson 3549.5
Sam Darnold 3512.5
Andy Dalton 3511.5
Dak Prescott 3499.5
Cam Newton 3485.5
Jimmy Garoppolo 3449.5
Kyler Murray 3419.5
Joe Flacco 3417.5
Josh Allen 3016.5
Marcus Mariota 2955.5
Eli Manning 2904.5
Lamar Jackson 2681.5

NFL Leading Passer (Yards) (Caesars Entertainment)

Patrick Mahomes 7-2
Matt Ryan 5.5-1
Andrew Luck 7-1
Baker Mayfield 7-1
Drew Brees 9-1
Aaron Rodgers 10-1
Ben Roethlisberger 12-1
Jared Goff 12-1
Philip Rivers 14-1
Jameis Winston 15-1
Tom Brady 16-1
Jimmy Garoppolo 18-1
Carson Wentz 20-1
Kirk Cousins 22-1
Deshaun Watson 25-1
Derek Carr 25-1
Matt Stafford 30-1
Mitch Trubisky 30-1
Russell Wilson 40-1
Sam Darnold 40-1
Kyler Murray 40-1
Nick Foles 40-1
Andy Dalton 50-1
Cam Newton 60-1
Dak Prescott 75-1
Joe Flacco 75-1
Dwayne Haskins 75-1
Josh Rosen 75-1
Case Keenum 100-1
Eli Manning 100-1
Marcus Mariota 100-1
Daniel Jones 100-1
Drew Lock 100-1
Josh Allen 150-1
Ryan Tannehill 200-1
Lamar Jackson 200-1

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