The 2021 Conference USA Championship Game is set for Friday, December 3, so we have prepared the best Western Kentucky vs. UTSA betting pick and odds, as the Hilltoppers meet the Roadrunners for the second time this season.
Back in Week 6, the Roadrunners outlasted the Hilltoppers 52-46 as 3-point home favorites with a total of 71.0 points. This time around, UTSA is a 1-point home underdog on MyBookie Sportsbook, while the totals sit at 71.5 points.
Western Kentucky aims for its eighth straight victory
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers improved to 8-4 SU and 9-3 ATS on the season following a 53-21 thrashing of the Marshall Thundering Herd this past Saturday. Playing as small 1-point road favorites, the Hilltoppers extended their winning streak to seven games and covered for the fifth straight outing.
Western Kentucky overcame a 14-point deficit last weekend. The Hilltoppers scored a whopping 47 second-half points, finishing with 485 all-purpose yards. Senior signal-caller Bailey Zappe went 25-of-48 for 328 yards and four touchdowns, while junior WR Daewood Davis had three catches for 105 yards and a pair of scores.
The Hilltoppers heavily lean on their passing offense, and Zappe has already tossed for an eye-popping 4,968 yards, 52 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He’s thrown for 15 scores and three picks over the last three weeks. The Hilltoppers are scoring 43.3 points per game (2nd in the nation) on 525.1 total yards (also 2nd) while surrendering 27.0 points in a return (tied-76th) on 411.3 total yards (90th).
UTSA’s perfect season has come to an end
Back in Week 12, the UTSA Roadrunners beat the UAB Blazers 34-31 at home to clinch their spot in the Conference USA championship game. Last weekend, they came out flat and suffered a heavy 45-23 defeat at the North Texas Mean Green to fall to 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS on the season.
The Roadrunners converted just one of their 13 3rd downs at North Texas. They gained 366 total yards, keeping the ball in possession for only 23:16. The Roadrunners also committed three turnovers, so their first loss in 2021 was inevitable.
UTSA is scoring 36.9 points per game (14th in the nation) on 433.9 total yards (41st) while allowing 22.2 points in a return (tied-33rd) on 346.4 total yards (36th). Senior QB Frank Harris has tossed for 2,688 yards, 23 touchdowns, and five interceptions thus far, while junior RB Sincere McCormick has added 262 totes for 1,275 yards and 12 touchdowns.
- 5-0 ATS in the last five games overall
- 4-7 ATS in the last 11 outings at home as underdogs
Western Kentucky vs. UTSA Pick
Western Kentucky has plenty of momentum coming into this clash. The Hilltoppers’ big-play offense is certainly capable of dealing with UTSA’s passing defense that ranks 63rd in the country with 225.2 yards allowed per game, while Western Kentucky’s defense has improved a lot over the previous few weeks, so I’m going with the visitors to win and cover.
The Hilltoppers haven’t allowed more than 21 points in seven straight showings at any location. On the other side, the Roadrunners’ defense has struggled over the last couple of weeks. UTSA will be highly motivated in its first trip to the Conference USA championship game, so I’m expecting a proper thriller at Alamodome. This game could easily go either way, and I hope the Hilltoppers’ offense will make the difference down the stretch.
Pick: Take Western Kentucky -1.0 at -110
The bookies set the line pretty high, so I have to go with the under. Despite their prolific offense, only one of the Hilltoppers’ last seven contests has produced more than 69 points in total. On the other side, none of the Roadrunners’ previous six tilts have produced more than 68 points in total.
The betting trends are suggesting the over, as four of UTSA’s last five games have gone over the total. Also, the over is 11-4 in Western Kentucky’s previous 15 contests overall.
Pick: Go under 71.5 points at -110