Planning on watching today’s Leathernecks and Eagles game? Catch the action at Ellis T. Johnson Arena in Morehead, KY, as the Eagles hosts this showdown at 3:30 ET on ESPN+. This Ohio Valley conference matchup has an over/under of 131.5 points, and Morehead State is favored to win by -10.5 at home vs. Western Illinois.


The Pick: Western Illinois Leathernecks +10.5

This game will be played at Ellis T. Johnson Arena at 3:30 ET on Saturday, January 27th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-69 in favor of the Eagles.
  • Even though we have Morehead State winning straight-up, we like Western Illinois at +10.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 131.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 146 points.

Is an Upset Waiting to Happen on the Road?

Western Illinois enters tonight’s game against Morehead State with a 13-7 record, including a 6-1 mark in Ohio Valley Conference play. The Leathernecks have been especially strong on the road, going 6-5 compared to 3-2 at home.

As the underdog, Western Illinois is 4-6 this season, and they have gone 5-1 when favored. Their average scoring margin on the road is -5.7, and they have won their last six games away from home.

Western Illinois has been solid against the spread this season, going 9-7. Their road ATS record is 7-4, and they have gone 3-0 vs. the spread in their last three road games. As the underdog, the Leathernecks have an ATS mark of 5-5 this year and are 5-5 in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Western Illinois’ over/under record for the season is 4-12 and over their last 10 games, the over/under record is 2-7. The average scoring total in their last three games is 126 points, which is lower than today’s over/under line of 131.5. So far this year, 13 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 131.5 and their games have averaged 134.6 points.

The Western Illinois offense is coming off a game where they scored 73 points against Southern Indiana. They posted a field goal percentage of 48.2% and connected on 5 threes. Leading Western Illinois in scoring vs. Southern Indiana was Ryan Myers with his 23 points. James Dent Jr. also added 14 points for the Leathernecks.

Western Illinois’ defense has been playing well, ranking 38th nationally, with 65.5 points allowed per game. Western Illinois will look once again to perform well on defense, holding Southern Indiana to just 40% shooting in their most recent game.

Can the Eagles Secure a Win at Home?

Morehead State is 5-0 at home this season, and they have won their last five games at home. They have a scoring margin of +13.6 points per game at home this season, and their average scoring margin at home over their last 10 games is +13.6 points per game.

Overall, the Eagles have a record of 15-5, and they have won their last two games. In Ohio Valley Conference play, they are 6-1, and their record in games where they are favored is 8-1.

Morehead State has been exceptional against the spread this season, posting a mark of 12-3-1. Their ATS record at home is a perfect 5-0 and they have gone 8-2 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Today’s over/under line of 131.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Morehead State’s games this season (138.6). So far, 15 of their games have had a higher over/under line than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 136 points, which is lower than the season average of 140.8 points per game.

In their recent game, the Eagles’ offense concluded with 81 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 77.4 points per contest. Riley Minix is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 18.9 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Jordan Lathon brings a PPG average of 16.1 into the game.

In the current season, the Morehead State defense has excelled, sitting 12th in the nation by allowing 63.1 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Morehead State’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 35.2% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 25.1% this season.