Week One NFL Betting Strategies: Ignore Last Year

nfl betting strategy

Every week in the NFL we will discuss some betting strategies for the upcoming week in the NFL. These betting strategies may be very complex or basic depending on how the week shapes up, but nonetheless they will be available with a winning pick every week right here at Bangthebook.

Finally the NFL is here! After a long wait it’s time to get down to some serious football action.

In week one, the betting strategy is simple: ignore last year.

When the oddsmakers post a line on an NFL game they take into account public perception, after all it is the public that can move the line. So it is very easy for the oddsmaker to over inflate a line based on last year’s results. That is exactly what has happened this year.
The line in the Detroit vs. St. Louis game is set at nine points. That seems very reasonable considering that the Lions were a contender a year ago and the Rams were a doormat. Matthew Stafford leads an explosive offense with the best pass catching threat in the league with Calvin Johnson.

However what people may be over looking is the changes that the Rams made in the off-season. The Rams are not the same team from a year ago and they have vastly improved.

Jeff Fisher is the new coach of the Rams and his presence will be felt immediately. He loves to run the ball and he has a workhorse in Steven Jackson to move the rock. Rookie running back Isaiah Pead provides a nice compliment to Jackson and this will take the pressure off Sam Bradford at quarterback.

The Lions offense is impressive but their defense is still vulnerable. The Rams will look to control the time of possession and they have a defense that will be able to keep this game close.

Most sports bettors have already forgotten that the Lions were 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They will continue to falter against the spread especially against bigger numbers like this one. This is a new year and although the Lions are still good, the Rams are improved and this line is just too big.

NFL Pick: Take the Rams +9

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One Comment

  1. Bobbbbay

    September 3, 2012 at 8:57 pm

    you can’t ignore last year. It starts with last year and then you adjust for the changes made.

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