Week 9 AFL Betting Analysis

 

Last Updated: 2017-08-30

We fell to 2-1 in the Arena Football League last week after a late kickoff return for a touchdown and a goal line stand at the end of the game were too much for us to overcome, so we’ll look to get back on track Saturday with the usual two games in the AFL.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay: Tampa is favored by 9.5 and the total on this one is 107. Baltimore has played well the last three games and it’s reflected in the line, as Tampa Bay was favored 11.5 points at Baltimore on May 7. Tampa Bay won that game 62-55 and then Philadelphia edged Baltimore 61-56 the following week. Last week Baltimore picked up its second win of the season, defeating Cleveland 63-60.

Baltimore has allowed 60 or more points per game in each of its last four contests, but has scored 50 or more points in its last three to keep the games close. The Brigade is last in the league in points allowed and while Tampa is middle of the pack as far as offense goes, the Storm do score more and allow more points when they play in front of the home fans. My numbers make this one 62-47 in favor of Tampa and will go ahead and grab the over 107 for our play this week.

Cleveland at Washington: Something has to give in this one, as Washington has yet to score 50 points in a single game and Cleveland has allowed its last three opponents to score at least 63 points. The only game Cleveland has held a team to fewer than 60 points is when they defeated Washington 48-34 in Week No. 2. Both teams have just one win on the year, while Cleveland is decent on offense and poor defensively and the Valor can play defense but have had trouble scoring. Washington has come to life a bit the past two weeks with 47 points against both Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. The Valor had a high of 34 points in their first three games.

Washington erased a 27-21 halftime deficit in the first meeting between the two and had a 120-yard advantage, with both teams making a pair or turnovers. My numbers are calling for another low-scoring game at 42-40 in favor of Cleveland, but a little hesitant to take the under, as it looks like Washington may be getting the kinks worked out of its offense.

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