Week 7 AFL Betting Analysis

 

Last Updated: 2017-08-30

arena football league week 7We’ll return to the Arena Football League once again, where we have the usual two games, which is what happens when you’re down to five teams in your league. Last week, we came up with an easy win with Baltimore plus three touchdowns, as they gave Philadelphia all the Soul could handle in a 61-56 loss.

We went against our numbers in that one, using the previous game between the two teams as a guideline, which is one of the advantages of having a small league. Both games today are rematches of games played within the last two weeks, with Washington and Tampa Bay a rematch of last Saturday’s game. Unfortunately, not all games will stand out quite like last week’s Baltimore game.

Cleveland at Philadelphia: Philadelphia is favored by 10 and the total on this game is 117.5, while my numbers have Philadelphia 63-47. One reason for the low number is simply a reaction from last week’s game, which the Soul barely won as prohibitive favorites, as well as the game from two weeks ago when Philadelphia escaped with a 69-67 victory. Cleveland outgained Philadelphia in the game and rushed 13 times for 79 yards, which is almost unheard of in the pass-happy AFL.

Cleveland has played teams close and aren’t as bad as that 1-4 record indicates, with all four losses coming by six points or less and the Gladiators have actually scored more points than they’ve allowed on the season. A little hesitant to go against the Soul after last week’s scare, however, and will stay away from this one.

Washington at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay won last week at Washington 41-33, but may not be quite as good as their 4-1 record indicates. The Storm defeated Cleveland by six points and one point and also own a 7-point win at Baltimore. Their 8-point margin of victory last week was their largest of the season.

Tampa Bay is favored by 13.5 points and the total is 91.5, while my numbers made Tampa Bay a 49-38 winner. It’s not often you’ll see teams playing each other in back-to-back weeks, but that’s what we have here. In last week’s game Tampa Bay led 27-14 at the half and out-gained Washington 215 to 187 for the game, both of which are well below league averages, as the Valor are one of the top defensive teams in the league. It’s not much of a margin, but think Washington can stay within the number here, as defense should have a bit of an edge in a quick rematch and will take the points.

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