Week 15 CFL Pick & Prediction: Montreal at Calgary

 

Last Updated: 2017-09-29

The Calgary Stampeders find themselves tied for the largest favorite in the past 10 seasons of the Canadian Football League tonight, as they host the Montreal Alouettes. Calgary is favored by 17 and the total on the game is 49, as they go up against the offensively-challenged Alouettes.

Montreal isn’t all that bad defensively, but the stop unit is starting to wear down, a result of being on the field too long each game thanks to the worst offense in the league. While the Alouettes are 3-4 straight-up at home, they’re 0-6 when the visiting team.

For the season Montreal is averaging 19.5 points per game and allowing 29.7, but on the road those numbers move to 20.2 and 33.3 points allowed. The Alouettes are 2-4 ATS away from home.
Calgary has been one of the top home teams in the league, standing 6-0 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread, as they’ve scored 36.5 points per game at home and allowed just 14.5.

Making things worse for Montreal is that this is a huge revenge game for the Stampeders, as the Alouettes pulled off the upset in July, coming away with a 30-23 victory as 4-point underdogs. Montreal ran the ball right down the throat of the Stampeders, rushing 26 times for 143 yards, while Calgary had just 10 rushing attempts for 28 yards.

But double-digit favorites looking for revenge haven’t been all that great the past 10 seasons, sporting a 3-7 ATS record and just 1-7 from 2009 on. Totals in those games were 4-6, so not a whole lot to go on there. The loss to the Alouettes is also the only one the Stampeders have suffered during the season, so you know they’ve been looking forward to this game, but are definitely laying quite a bit of lumber.

Montreal knows its best chance is to try and slow the game and get the rushing attack going. Drew Willy will get the start at quarterback for the Alouettes, as Darian Durant has a hamstring injury. Willy is 22 for 31 for 217 yards for the season and no touchdowns.

The Stampeders will be without leading rusher Jerome Messam is going to miss the game. The leading rusher in the CFL, Messam has nine touchdowns on the ground so far this season, but will be sidelined, as Calgary comes off a short week, having played on Sunday.

My numbers have Calgary winning 37-14, but with key injuries for both offenses, will take a shot on the under in this spot.

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