Week 15 AFL Betting Analysis

 

Last Updated: 2017-08-30

We’ll return to the Arena Football League this week after taking a few weeks off due to our numbers being relatively close to the lines. That’s the case once again, but think there’s a bit of value with one of the two games today.

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: This could be a pretty decent game, as Baltimore is favored by 1.5 and the total on the game is 103.5. My numbers are calling for a 51-51 contest, so no value in either direction. Tampa Bay is 8-3 straight-up and Baltimore is 4-6. While Tampa Bay has the distinction of not being an expansion team like Baltimore, with the dispersal draft and all of that, Tampa Bay only had five players returning from last year. Tampa Bay won the first two meetings between the teams, although both games were fairly close. The Storm won the first contest 62-55, although Baltimore out-gained Tampa Bay, while Tampa Bay won the second game 47-32 where the yardage was fairly even.

Tampa Bay has pretty much been an average team this season, scoring 50.5 points per game against foes who allow 50.6 and allowing 48.9 to teams who score 48.6 points per game. Baltimore scores 48.1 points against teams that allow 49.2 points and allow 54.1 points to teams who allow 51.2 points per game.

Washington at Philadelphia: The Soul have been the class of the Arena Football League and are 10-1 on the season, along with being prohibitive favorites to win the championship. Washington is on the other end of the spectrum and are 1-9 on the season, but haven’t been as bad as their record shows. The Soul are favored by 21.5 points and the total is 96.5, while my numbers make Philadelphia a 55-37 winner.

The teams have played twice, with the Soul winning 49-31 and 48-47, with both those games being played in Washington. Yardage was pretty even in the 49-31 contest, while Washington didn’t help themselves with four turnovers and the Valor pretty much dominated the stats in the rematch, but still managed to come up on the short end of the scoreboard.

Washington has lost by more than 21 points once this season and the Soul have only won two games by more than three touchdowns. Philadelphia is coming off its first loss of the season and has a rematch with Baltimore, who just defeated them on tap, although they will have a week off before that contest, which will remove some of the look-ahead factor. Still, think Washington can stay within the generous number in this one, as long as they can hang onto the football and keep the turnovers down to a minimum. They played fairly even with the Soul twice and am hopeful they can do so once again.

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