Week 14 CFL Pick & Prediction: Hamilton at British Columbia

 

Last Updated: 2017-09-22

The second game on the Canadian Football League schedule for Friday night is an interesting game between the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the British Columbia Lions. The Lions are favored by 13 and the total is 51.5.

After beginning the season by dropping their first eight games, the Tiger-Cats have won two of their last three, which was last week in a 27-19 loss to Saskatchewan. The Tiger-Cats haven’t been all that bad defensively, allowing 71 points over their last three games, although part of that may have more to do with the opposition than a big improvement over their season average, where they allow nearly 35 points per game.

British Columbia is pretty average on offense and defense, and that’s evidenced by their 6-6 record, which has them in last place in the West, while they would be leading the East. The Lions are 2-5 against the West and 5-2 against the East, while both of Hamilton’s victories came over teams in the East.

The Tiger-Cats have gone under the total in each of their last three games, but are 3-2 on the road for the season. Hamilton doesn’t play too much differently at home or away, as they’ve been equally bad in both locations. They show the typical stats of scoring slightly less and allowing slightly more on the road.

The Lions score five more points per game at home than they do on the road, while their defense is just slightly better, surrenduring 1.4 fewer points per game.

The teams have met once this season, where the Lions went into Hamilton and took it to the Lions by a 41-26 final, grabbing a 21-16 halftime lead and never looking back. British Columbia could have put more points on the board, but hurt themselves with four turnovers, while the Tiger-Cats were responsible for two turnovers.

Neither team was able to get much going on the ground, but did enjoy a bit of success through the air, with Hamilton throwing for 343 yards and the Lions picking up 426. Three of the Lions’ four turnovers were interceptions, so expect British Columbia to take better care of the ball in this one.

Last year’s games were extremely different, as British Columbia won the first game 28-3 and took the second game by a 45-38 margin.

The total was a little lower than I expected in this one, as my numbers made it British Columbia 37-28, so I’ll have to follow the numbers on this one and will take the over 51.5 in the ESPN2 game.

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