Week 12 AFL Betting Analysis

 

Last Updated: 2017-08-30

Just one game once again in the Arena Football League, as the league seems to like to spread the action out over two days when possible. Tonight’s game is a rather lackluster affair between 1-7 Washington and 2-6 Baltimore, while Saturday’s game could at least be a little exciting, as two high-powered offenses in Cleveland and Philadelphia do battle.

Washington at Baltimore: Baltimore is favored by 3.5 points and the total on this one is 94.5, while my numbers favor Washington 43-42. Washington did win the first game between the two 51-38, so it’s a bit of a revenge game for the Brigade.

After starting the season strong defensively, Washington has struggled on the side of the ball over its past four games. The Valor didn’t allow any of its first four opponents to score 50 points, but three of their last four have done so and the lone team that didn’t put up 48 points. While the defense has slipped, the offense has picked up a little bit and Washington is coming off its best offensive output of the season last game out in a losing effort.

Baltimore has picked-up wins over Cleveland and also lost to the Gladiators one time. The Brigade made three turnovers in the first meeting between the two compared to one for Washington, as the yardage was fairly even.

Philadelphia at Cleveland: Philadelphia is favored by 7 and the total on this one is a lofty 114.5, although my numbers favor Philadelphia 62-53, so the total is pretty close. This is the third meeting between the two teams and the Soul has come away with 64-46 and 59-49 victories in Philadelphia. This is the first game that will be played in Cleveland.

The key here is simply motivation for Philadelphia, who has an undefeated record and already beaten Cleveland twice. The Soul have a two-game lead over Tampa Bay and an off week upcoming, so there isn’t a whole lot of incentive for them to be fired up for this game.

Cleveland has actually won the statistics in each of the first two games and also has the edge over the Soul in season-long stats, but Philadelphia has been great at making the most of their opportunities. Cleveland actually gains 60 more yards per game than Philadelphia and allows 20 fewer, but they sit with a 3-7 record, while the Soul is 9-0.

I may be over-thinking this one, but am going to take the Gladiators in this spot for our play of the week.

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