Week 11 NFL Odds Analysis
- Updated: November 13, 2013
We’re all set to get going with the Week 11 odds for NFL this week at Bang the Book, as there are a plethora of games that we are going to be focusing in on that are going to have some huge impacts on the entire season.
Week 11 is shaping up to be one of the most interesting weeks of the season to bet on the NFL betting lines. There is only one game on the board right now in which the spread is greater than a touchdown, and that is the duel between the Seattle Seahawks and the Minnesota Vikings. The Seahawks are -13 in this one, but aside from that, good luck finding a team that is almost certain to win outright.
The Houston Texans are one of those teams that is laying a TD, but we aren’t so sure why that is justified. The Texans have dropped seven games in a row, and though they have played well enough to be 6-3, they have also gotten lucky to not be 0-9. There isn’t a game this year where they have played a full 60 minutes without much in the way of flaws. The Oakland Raiders have already challenged some teams on the road this year, and they aren’t really justified getting a full seven. Likewise, the Jacksonville Jaguars are getting seven from the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards haven’t played anyone legit and won this year, and this game doesn’t fit that bill either, but they haven’t played well on the road either. Jacksonville has a one-game winning streak going, its longest of the season after eight straight losses, and it can string together a second win in this one for sure.
The New York Giants started off the season at 0-6, and it was a wonder as to whether they would ever find their way back to wins. They have won three in a row though, and they could claw another one back this week when they take on the Green Bay Packers. The Packers are struggling just to find healthy quarterbacks, as both QB Aaron Rodgers and QB Seneca Wallace are out injured, and there isn’t much hope to go on the road and beat much of anyone. Big Blue is giving six in one of the showcase games in the 4:00 ET hour on Sunday.
The Cincinnati Bengals are -5.5 at home against the Cleveland Browns in what amounts to be one of the squarer games of the entire weekend, but literally the rest of the main portion of the card on Sunday features all sorts of games with close point spreads.
The Atlanta Falcons are -1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a battle of cellar-dwellers in the NFC South, while the New York Jets are +1 against the Buffalo Bills in what looks to be one of the trickier games on Sunday to handicap. The Detroit Lions, who are a game up in the NFC North with just seven to play, are strangely 1.5-point road favorites against the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Philadelphia Eagles are -3 against the Washington Redskins in a rematch of the first Monday Night Football game of the season.
The Chicago Bears are about to start a second stint without QB Jay Cutler, and the timing for taking on one of the best defenses in the NFL couldn’t be much worse. The Baltimore Ravens have all sorts of offensive problems though, and that’s why they are +2.5 in this game pitting underachieving teams that are just barely holding onto their playoff hopes against each other.
On Thursday Night Football, the Indianapolis Colts are giving a field goal to the Tennessee Titans, a point spread that has moved four points since the news that QB Jake Locker was out for the season broke. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick will start under center for the Titans, who were beaten by the lowly Jags last week.
Speaking of lowly, that’s what the Miami Dolphins look like right now after they were beaten by the Bucs on Monday Night Football. Now, they have to come off of a short week to take on the San Diego Chargers in what might be a must-have game. This whole incident with G Richie Incognito and T Jonathan Martin has gotten blown out of proportion, but it is really killing the Fins right now. They have to get back on track. They are +1 in this game against the Bolts, who are still hoping to lock down that last playoff spot available in the AFC.
The showcase game in the NFC on Sunday features the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco 49ers. QB Drew Brees and the gang just had a huge offensive day against the Dallas Cowboys last week, and they are going to try to do it again to the Niners. This is a long road trip for San Francisco, which just lost at home for the second time this year to Carolina last week. The 49ers have proven time and time again that they can win games like these, but this is as tough of a game as it gets. Losing this one can kiss any chances of winning the NFC West goodbye. The Saints are -3.
The two best games of the week though, are clearly the ones in primetime. On Sunday Night Football, the teams with the two best records in the league will meet, as the Denver Broncos take on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are the last undefeated team in the NFL, but few are buying into what they are selling. If they can find a way to go on the road and win this game though, all will be forgiven. KC is +7.5 against QB Peyton Manning and the gang, and it should be really interesting to see how Manning reacts to being banged up going against one of the best defenses that the NFL has to offer.
Finally on Monday Night Football, the Carolina Panthers, who have won five games in a row, are hosting the New England Patriots, who quietly have started off the year at 7-2. Few believe that the Patriots are the real deal, but fewer believe that Carolina is really ready to challenge the big boys. Can the Panthers really win a game like this for a second straight week? The oddsmakers are giving them the benefit of the doubt at -2.5 at home, essentially stating that these two teams are on level terms.
There isn’t a ‘total’ this week in the 30s, and the lowest number on the board is the 40.5 in the Jets/Bills duel. Interestingly enough though, there is only one game lined in the 50s, as that is the clash between the Eagles and the Redskins. The first go around was a high scoring affair, and with the way that QB Nick Foles is playing, no one should doubt the fact that this really should be the highest scoring game on the Week 12 odds.