Week 11 CFL Pick & Prediction: Ottawa at Montreal


Last Updated: 2017-08-31

We’ve labored a bit in the Canadian Football League lately and are now 16-11-1 on the season. Tonight, just one game on the CFL docket as Ottawa visits Montreal. The game is even and the total on the game is 52 after opening at 51. My numbers have Ottawa winning 25-21.

Somewhat of a strange weekend in the CFL, with one Thursday game, one game on Sunday and a pair of Labor Day games in the afternoon.

For the season, home teams have climbed to 18-22-1 against the spread and totals are 19-20-2, which is about as break-even as you’re going to get. Favorites are 19-21-1, so they’ve also gradually gotten better as the season goes along.

The teams played a good game last month, where Ottawa was able to pull out a 24-19 victory over the Alouettes, who suffered four turnovers, while the REDBLACK didn’t have any. Montreal held a small yardage advantage of 73 yards, so a bit surprising the margin of victory wasn’t larger after factoring in the turnovers. Neither team really rushed the ball well, as the two squads combined for 109 yards on 30 carries.

Ottawa has been great as an underdog, going 4-0 this season and 20-6 over the past two-and-a-half years, while they also sport a 16-5 record in division games over the same time span, which isn’t all that surprising considering Ottawa is 31-18 ATS overall in that span.

The REDBLACKS are averaging 30.2 points per game on the road this season and allowing 27.2, both of which are pretty close to their season averages.

Montreal is scoring 23 points per game at home and allowing 21, which is slightly less than they allow overall, while scoring is fairly consistent.

This game is a quick turnaround for Ottawa, which defeated British Columbia on Saturday and now is on the road. This has been a bit of a difficult situation for teams in the past, as away teams with less than five days rest have gone 38-47-3 (44.7%) over the years. These teams are also 22-28 if they are coming off a victory in their previous game.

Ottawa has the best passing attack in the league, at least in terms of yardage gained, but the REDBLACKS are facing one of the better defenses in the league in the Alouettes. Montreal has allowed 72 points their past two games and have to think that the defense will be out for a measure of redemption, so will take this one to go under the total of 52.

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