Week 11 AFL Pick & Prediction: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia


Last Updated: 2017-08-30

We moved to 3-2 in the AFL this season, as Cleveland was able to get the cover Friday night against Baltimore, winning 59-48 as 9.5-point favorites. They closed 7.5-point favorites, but managed to sneak in there for us.

The two Arena Football League heavyweights do battle in Philadelphia tonight, as the Tampa Bay Storm visits the Philadelphia Soul for the second time this season. Philadelphia won the first meeting 56-52 in Tampa back in Week No. 2 and the teams will face off for the third time of the year to end the regular season.

The line tonight is Philadelphia -12.5 with a total of 109. My numbers say Philadelphia 62-48, so like last night, not a whole lot of breathing room in this one. We’ve had some of most success looking at previous match-ups between the teams, so that’s what we’ll do in this one.

Tampa Bay had a slight yardage advantage in the first game, but hurt themselves with penalties, committing 14 for 100 yards compared to five for 33 yards on Philadelphia. Tampa led 25-20 until five seconds remaining in the first half when the Soul scored a touchdown and also scored first in the third quarter and the teams traded touchdowns from that point on, with the Storm scoring in the final 30 seconds.

The Soul rushed the ball 17 times, which is nearly unheard of in the AFL, and they may try to do so once again. The game features two of the top three offenses in the league, with Philadelphia averaging 59.4 and Tampa averaging 52.6 points per game. Both teams allow pretty close to 48 points per game, with no real advantage to either team.

Philadelphia hasn’t lost in exactly one year, with its last setback coming June 17, 2016. They bring a 12-game winning streak into this one.

Tampa Bay has a bye after this week, while Philadelphia travels to Cleveland, but you have to think both teams are going to be entirely focused on this game, which can pretty much clinch home field advantage for the Soul. The Storm are 7-1, while Philadelphia is 8-0 and no other team has more than three victories.

Philadelphia has won eight of the last nine games between the two played in Philadelphia, although Tampa Bay has typically been either pretty good or pretty bad. While it’s tempting to grab the underdog, going to have to take this one to go over the total. There were a few missed opportunities out there last game and think it’s probably the better of the two options.

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