Week 10 NFL Odds Analysis

2013 NFL Odds Week 16

We’re all set to get going with the Week 10 odds for NFL this week at Bang the Book, as there are a plethora of games that we are going to be focusing in on that are going to have some huge impacts on the entire season.

If there was ever a week for teams to get back into the playoff race, this would be the week. There are a number of teams that are 3-5 or 2-6 that would take massive steps in the right direction, as a lot of the top teams in the NFL are in a lot of trouble.

Perhaps the showcase game is one pitting the 3-5 Baltimore Ravens up against the 6-3 Cincinnati Bengals. Cincy has yet to have its bye this year, and it might really be showing. The squad lost a game that it probably should have won last week against the Miami Dolphins in overtime, and that put it in a position where if this game is lost, both Baltimore and the Cleveland Browns could be right back in the discussion for the AFC North title race. The Ravens haven’t had the best history in the world against the Bengals, and the oddsmakers think that the visitors are set to essentially end the season for Baltimore prematurely. Cincy is -1.5, even on the road at M&T Bank Stadium.

Opportunity is knocking in the NFC East as well. The Dallas Cowboys have a really tough game in the Bayou against the New Orleans Saints in which they are six-point underdogs on Sunday Night Football, and if that one goes the way of the hosts, there once again will not be a team above .500 in the NFC East. Here’s the difference, though. This week, the chance is going to be there for all of the teams to ultimately gain some ground on the Cowboys.

The New York Giants are taking on the Oakland Raiders at home, and they are one of the biggest favorites of the weekend at -7.5. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are only +2 on the road against the Green Bay Packers, who are going to have to get used to life without QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is out for at least the next week or two with a shoulder injury, and the Packers looked awful with QB Seneca Wallace calling the shots instead of their franchise quarterback against a suspect defense. Remember too, that Green Bay played on Monday Night Football last week, which doesn’t bode well for this one for the hosts. Meanwhile, the Washington Redskins are starting off the week by playing against perhaps the worst team in the league, the Minnesota Vikings, who have still yet to win a game here in the United States this season. The Skins are -2.5 on the road.

SportsBookThe chase for the AFC Wild Cards is definitely on as well. Right now, the idle New York Jets hold that last spot at 5-4, but the San Diego Chargers and the Miami Dolphins both have the chance to pull into a tie for those slot. The Bolts though, are seven-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos. Denver has to be careful about overlooking this trip to Qualcomm Stadium, knowing that a game next week is coming up against the unbeaten and also idle Kansas City Chiefs. The Dolphins are playing in another one of these awful Monday Night Football games against the winless and hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Fins are only -2.5 though, and that tells us that the oddsmakers think this could be the day that Tampa Bay finally gets in the win column.

They don’t think, however, that the Jacksonville Jaguars will be scoring their first ‘W’ of the year this week. Jacksonville is on the road against the Tennessee Titans, who are also right in the thick of the fight for that last Wild Card spot. The Titans are giving 13, making them the biggest favorites of the weekend.

The Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers are both longshots right now to get into the playoffs. Pittsburgh has to be embarrassed after giving up 55 points and over 600 yards to the New England Patriots last week. Now, the boys from the Steel City have a shot to claim this one against a suspect Buffalo team. The hosts are only favored by the value of home field advantage at -3.

The Houston Texans are 2-6 and are on a six-game skid. They won’t have Head Coach Gary Kubiak this week, knowing that he suffered a stroke on the sidelines going into halftime of Sunday Night Football. The Texans seem demoralized, but they are going to have a real shot at winning their next three games. If they can do that, they’ll be right back in it and likely just a game back with five to play. Going on the road to take on the Arizona Cardinals is tough though, and that’s why the oddsmakers have Arizona at -2.5 to improve to 5-4.

Speaking of the NFC West, the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks are playing in very similar games this week against NFC South foes. The Seahawks have to travel across the country to take on the Atlanta Falcons, whom they played in the second round of the playoffs last year. The Seahawks rallied in that game to take a lead with less than a minute left after being behind by 20 points going into the fourth quarter, but Atlanta was able to kick the game winning field goal with virtually no time left on the clock.

San Fran is going against one of the hottest teams in the league, the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers haven’t played much of anyone in this stretch, but they are killing them all. Can they go on the road and beat one of the best teams in football? The 49ers are going to be waiting to knock QB Cam Newton and the gang back to size. Both of the NFC West teams are favored by six.

The Detroit Lions are laying a field goal against the Chicago Bears in a game that will be for first place in the NFC North. The Lions haven’t won a game at Lambeau Field in six years, but they have a shot in this one, as they are giving a field goal to QB Josh McCown and the Bears.

‘Totals’ this week are back to normal now that the Broncos are playing once again. They have the highest number to beat this week at 57 against the Chargers, while the Cowboys and the Saints aren’t all that far behind at 53.5. Expect to see that latter number rise throughout the week, especially in the waning hours before kickoff, as the ‘over’ is going to be a very square play in all likelihood when push comes to shove.

Though there aren’t any ‘totals’ in the 30s this week, we know that we are working towards that as the weather gets colder all over the country. Three 41s are on the board, though. Houston and Arizona is probably the most likely of the three games to exceed the number of 41, while the Dolphins/Bucs game and the Jaguars/Titans game both also have the lowest number on the board this week at 41.

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Cole Ryan

Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.

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