At 6:00 ET, the Miami Heat (-534) will host the Washington Wizards (+395) in a Southeast Division matchup. Miami is favored by 10.5 points and has lost two straight games. The over/under line for this game is set at 229 points.

This game will be played at the Kaseya Center in Miami and can be seen on BSSU.


The Pick: Washington Wizards +10.5

This game will be played at Kaseya Center at 6:00 ET on Sunday, March 10th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 114-109 in favor of the Heat.
  • Our projections have Terry Rozier finishing with Terry Rozier points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Heat finishing with a field goal percentage of 47.3% and knocking down 11 threes.

Is an Upset Waiting to Happen on the Road?

In their last game, the Wizards defeated the Hornets by a score of 112-100. The O/U line for that game was 225.5, and Washington covered the spread as 2.5-point favorites.

Washington has an O/U record of 31-32 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 238.7 points per game. Today’s O/U line is set at 229, which is lower than 56 of their previous games.

As the underdog, the Wizards have lost 16 straight games ATS, and they are 9-50 as the underdog this season. On the road, their ATS record is 20-13.

On the season, Washington is 10-53 and currently 14th in the Eastern Conference. In non-conference games, they are 3-20 and 7-33 against other Eastern Conference teams.

For the season, the Wizards are 29-33 against the spread, and they are 28-30 ATS as the underdog. On the road, their ATS record is 6-27 compared to 4-26 at home.

When looking at their games, the average O/U line is 240 points, and their games have averaged 238.7 points. Today’s line is set at 229.

Heading into their matchup with the Heat, the Wizards are the top-ranked team in pace at 102.7 possessions per game. Washington’s offense is averaging 114.5 points per game, which is 16th in the league. In terms of field goal percentage, the Wizards are 17th at 47%.

When it comes to three-point shooting, the Wizards are 29th in the league at 34%. However, they are 5th in two-point field goal percentage at 54%. In terms of free throws, Washington is 25th in makes per game (15.7) and 27th in attempts (20.5).

On the offensive glass, the Wizards are 25th in the NBA, averaging 9.4 offensive rebounds per game. In terms of assists, Washington is 9th in the league at 28.1 per game.

At this time, the Wizards’ defense is positioned 30th in the NBA, permitting 124.2 points per game. The Wizards defense is coming off a game in which they held the Hornets offense to just 49.4% shooting. Overall, they gave up 100 points to Charlotte.

Will Miami Win at Home?

Miami’s O/U record for the season is 24-39 and their last two games have gone under the total. Today’s line of 229 is slightly higher than their season average of 222.6.

Looking at their ATS record, the Heat are 30-30 overall and 12-18 at home. They have covered the spread in their last two games at home and are favored by 10.5 points today.

In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are currently in 6th place with a record of 35-28. Against the East, they are 23-16 and 12-12 against non-conference opponents.

As the favorite, Miami has won seven straight games and has a record of 25-10 this season. Their average scoring margin as the favorite is +2.7 PPG. As the favorite, they are 15-17 ATS.

In their last game, the Heat lost to the Thunder by a score of 107-100. They were 8.5-point underdogs going into the game. The O/U line for that game was 226.5.

At home, the Miami Heat are averaging 113.7 points per game, which is 21st in the league. Overall, they are 27th in scoring at 110.5 points per game.

So far this season, the Heat have outscored the NBA scoring average in just 34.9% of their games. In terms of pace, Miami is 29th in the league.

When it comes to field goal percentage, the Heat are 23rd in the NBA at 46%. From beyond the arc, Miami is 6th in three-point shooting percentage, but they are just 27th in two-point shooting percentage.

Miami’s defense has been playing well, ranking 6th in the NBA with 109.9 points allowed per game. When it comes to forced turnovers, the Heat are forcing 12.1 per game, which is 8th in the league. They also come into the game sitting 30th in blocked shots at 3.4 per game.