The MLB betting action continues Tuesday, August 10, 2021, with 16 games on the schedule, so we’re taking a closer look at the National League East showdown at Citi Field in New York, bringing you the best Nationals vs. Mets betting pick.

The Nats are 5-3 against the Mets in 2021, but four of those five wins came at Nationals Park in Washington. The Mets are -200 home favorites for Tuesday’s clash, while the Nats sit at +185 with a total of 8.5 runs on BetDSI Sportsbook. 

The Nationals dropped six of their eight tilts in August  

The Washington Nationals are coming off a 5-4 loss at the Atlanta Braves this past Sunday, recording their sixth defeat in the last seven outings at any location. The Nats fell to 50-62 on the season and were nine games behind the Philadelphia Phillies, who led the way in the NL East.

Over the last two weeks, the Nationals have done a good job at the plate, scoring 66 runs in 14 games and slashing .262/.340/.432. However, they’ve registered a pedestrian 5.26 ERA in that span, surrendering a .254 batting average to their opponents.

Paolo Espino will get the starting call Tuesday, and he’s 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in nine starts and 14 relief appearances this season. Espino got stretched in June, and over his previous eight outings (seven starts), the righty has registered a 4.79 ERA and a .285 batting average against through 35.2 innings of work.

The 34-year-old Panamanian has tossed six scoreless innings against the Mets so far this season (1-0 in one start and one relief app), yielding five hits and punching out three in the process.

The Mets are in crisis

The 56-55 New York Mets are 1-7 in August. They’ve won only five of their previous 17 games overall, so the Mets are sitting at the third spot of the NL East standings at the moment, a couple of games behind the Atlanta Braves, and 2.5 games behind the Phillies.

The Mets are tied with the 39-73 Texas Rangers for the second-lowest scoring offense in the majors, averaging just 3.75 runs per game. New York has scored a paltry 38 runs over its previous 15 games overall while recording a terrible .212/.290/.337 slash line.

On the pitching side of things, the Mets have struggled in their last 15 showings, tallying a 4.71 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and .251 batting average against. They’ll send Carlos Carrasco to the mound Tuesday, and the 34-year-old righty has returned from a hamstring injury recently, making his season debut on July 30.

In two starts and 8.1 frames of work this term, Carrasco has allowed three earned runs on eight hits and one walk while striking out nine, facing off against the Reds and Marlins.

Trends:

Washington:

  • 1-6 in the last seven games overall
  • 3-11 in the last 14 games on the road  

NY Mets:

  • 10-4 in the last 14 home games against Washington

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Pick

The Mets desperately need to improve on both sides of the ball and especially at the dish. The home matchup with the Nationals is a perfect opportunity to get things going, so I’m backing the hosts to win and keep the pace in the playoff race.

The current Nationals are batting just 13-for-56 against Carlos Carrasco, though the Mets will have to lean on their bullpen, as Carrasco won’t last too long. He’s combined for just 120 pitches through his first two starts in 2021.

The Mets ‘pen has recorded a 3.15 ERA in the last two weeks of action, while the Nationals bullpen has posted an awful 5.85 ERA in that span. Also, the Mets should finally score a run off Paulo Espino, who’s yielded three or more earned runs in five of his last seven appearances.

Pick: Take New York Mets at -200 

The Total:

Paulo Espino has been tortured by the Phillies for six earned runs across five innings last time out. The Mets have a great opportunity to break out of their funk, but I don’t expect the hosts to score a bunch of runs.

Citi Field is quite a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and the Mets boast a 2.95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home, allowing their rivals a .208 batting average and a .634 OPS. I would go with the under. Seven of eight meetings between the Nats and Mets in 2021 produced fewer than nine runs in total.

Pick: Go under 8.5 runs at +105