The MLB betting action continues Saturday, May 21, with a ton of interesting markets to choose from, so we’re taking a closer look at the National League showdown from American Family Field in Milwaukee to get you the best Nationals vs. Brewers betting pick.
The Nats and Brew Crew continue their three-game series in Wisconsin, and the hosts are firm -200 moneyline favorites on BetOnline Sportsbook. Washington is a +184 road dog, while the totals are listed at 7.5 runs. Friday night’s opener has been excluded from the analysis.
The Nationals snapped their three-game skid last Wednesday
The Washington Nationals improved to 13-26 on the season following a 5-4 victory in ten innings at loanDepot Park in Miami this past Wednesday. It was their fourth win in the previous 14 outings at any location, as the Nats avoid a sweep in a three-game set against the Marlins.
Washington entered the Brewers series as the second-worst team in the majors. The Nats were tallying 4.05 runs per game (19th in the MLB) on a .250/.317/.360 slash line (.235/.308/.378 league average). On the other side of the ball, the Nationals carry a pedestrian 4.93 ERA (28th).
Patrick Corbin will toe the slab Saturday in Milwaukee. He’s having a horrible season, posting a 0-6 record in eight starts to go with an awful 6.28 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and 36/19 K/BB ratio across 38.2 innings of work. Corbin is 3-6 with a 4.55 ERA in ten career starts and one relief appearance against the Brewers.
The Brewers have just beat the reigning champs
The Milwaukee Brewers outlasted the Atlanta Braves 7-6 in 11 innings this past Wednesday. They clinched a three-game home series against the reigning champions and improved to 24-14 on the season.
The Brewers were sitting top of the NL Central on Friday, four games above the St. Louis Cardinals. They were scoring 4.71 runs per game (6th in the majors) on a .233/.311/.408 triple-slash while recording a 3.49 ERA (9th).
Brandon Woodruff will get the ball Saturday, looking for his second straight win. The 29-year-old righty yielded three runs (one earned) across five frames in a 7-3 road victory over the Miami Marlins this past Sunday. Woodruff has struggled a bit so far this season, posting a 5.35 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in seven starts (33.2 innings). Still, he’s 4-2, and the Brewers have emerged victorious in five of Woodruff’s previous six starts.
- 4-10 in the last 14 games overall
- 5-15 in the last 20 games against the National League
- 1-5 in the last six road games against Milwaukee
- 7-2 in the last nine games at home
- 5-1 in Brandon Woodruff’s last six starts
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick
Patrick Corbin has been a disaster thus far. He’s allowed five earned runs (three homers) last time out, while the Nats have gone 0-8 in Corbin’s eight starts this season. Hereof, I won’t overthink this game, although Brandon Woodruff has been underperforming since Opening Day.
Both Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe went yard twice against Corbin, while Christian Yelich is 4-for-16 with one home run. The Nationals should score a few runs, but their pitching staff is a big issue.
Pick: Take Milwaukee Brewers at -200
Over the last seven days, the Brewers’ bullpen has recorded a sharp 2.37 ERA, 2.21 FIP, and .225 BABIP. On the other side, the Nats’ bullpen has registered a 4.76 ERA, 3.36 FIP, and .342 BABIP. I don’t trust the Nationals’ pitching staff, so give me the over on the totals.
I would be surprised if the Brewers fail to score five or more runs. Hopefully, the Nationals will help the over backers, though they have just nine hits and one homer in 48 at-bats against Brandon Woodruff, who’s allowed 16 runs over his previous four starts (19 innings).
Pick: Go over 7.5 runs at -105