Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick 07/12/19

Date | AuthorBTB Staff

Last Updated: 2019-07-12

Cesar Hernandez and the Philadelphia Phillies are set to host their surging divisional rival Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. The matchup will begin at 6:05 p.m. ET and fans hoping to watch it can tune in to NBC Sports Philadelphia.

Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Oddsmakers have listed Washington (-140) as the favorite over Philadelphia (+130). If you think the game’s total will go under 9 runs, Vegas is currently offering even money odds (+100). Playing the over will give you -120 odds. There’s a runline of Nationals -1.5 (+105) and Phillies +1.5 (-125) for this matchup.

The Nationals have gone 47-42 SU this year and are 47-42 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.1 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 1.2 units ATS. Washington’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven. The Phillies, on the other hand, are 47-43 SU and 44-46 ATS. They’ve lost 3.9 units for moneyline bettors and 2.8 units ATS. Philadelphia has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.

Phillies games have an over/under record of 44-42-4 so far in 2019. Washington has an over/under record of 43-40-6.

Right-hander Stephen Strasburg will get the start for the visiting Nationals. Strasburg is 10-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 138 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with three strikeouts and a 13.50 ERA against Philadelphia this year.

The Phillies are handing the ball to righty Nick Pivetta (4-3, 5.84 ERA), who has 52 strikeouts and 19 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.48. Pivetta is 0-2 with eight strikeouts and a 13.00 ERA across two starts against Washington this year.

Philadelphia’s pitchers have given up 4.9 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The club’s starters have a 4.56 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.76 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.1 K/9. In 46 divisional games, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.70 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.37.

Philadelphia’s hitters are putting up 4.9 runs per contest, including 5.4 per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .291/.362/.475 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.

Second baseman Cesar Hernandez and shortstop Jean Segura have led the charge for the Phillies’ batters this year. Hernandez is slashing .285/.339/.420 with seven home runs, 40 RBIs and 42 runs scored, while Segura is hitting .278 with 10 homers, 40 RBIs and 55 runs.

For the visitors, Washington’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.55 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.99 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 6.08, along with a WHIP of 1.18 and a K-per-9 of 9.09.

The Nationals offense has slashed .254/.330/.437 on its way to 4.9 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Washington’s offensive production has been led by outfielders Adam Eaton and Juan Soto, who collectively have blasted 21 home runs. Eaton is hitting .281/.368/.383 with six home runs, 21 RBIs and 50 runs scored. Soto is slashing .300/.406/.537 with 15 homers, 56 RBIs and 53 runs scored.

The Nationals have lost 1.6 units and are 37-30 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 32 of those games, compared to 32 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 1.4 units and are 33-34 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 32 of those games, compared to 31 that’ve gone under.

Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Nationals, ATS Winner – Nationals, O/U – OVER


Betting Trends

Washington has logged 20 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Philadelphia has 17 XBH over its last five.

The Nationals have hit 16 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 15 over their last 10.

The Nationals have an OPS of .768 this season and an OPS of .734 against right-handed pitchers. The Phillies’ OPS stands at .750 overall and .740 against righties.

Washington has recorded 22.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 23.8 over its last five.

The Nationals have won six of their last seven games SU.

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