Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Florida College Football Betting Pick 11/9/19


The Vanderbilt Commodores (+25) are traveling south to take on their SEC rival No. 10 Florida Gators at Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The afternoon matchup is scheduled to start at 12:00 p.m. ET and you can tune in to the action on ESPN.

Vanderbilt at No. 10 Florida Betting Odds 11/9/2019

Florida is heavily favored in this one and is currently giving up 25 points to Vanderbilt. If the Gators get down early it will generate a decent in-game betting opportunity. The over/under is set at 47 points.

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The line opened at -24. The game’s total has not changed after it was initially set at 47.

The Commodores are 2-6 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against conference opponents. The Gators are 7-2 SU overall and 4-2 SU in conference play. The disappointing Commodores are down 12.0 units so far and 1-7 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 2-6.

The surprising Gators are up 3.2 units this season. They’re 3-3-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-5.

The Commodores are reeling from a 24-7 loss to South Carolina last weekTheir defense allowed the Gamecocks to rush for 205 yards on 49 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Bryan Edwards logged a productive day for the Gamecocks in that one with 139 yards and a score on 14 catches. On the offense, Deuce Wallace completed only eight passes on 17 attempts for 30 yards and two interceptions. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (87 yards on 20 rush attempts) provided the running attack in the loss while C.J. Bolar (three receptions, 16 yards) and Vaughn (two catches, 11 yards) handled the receiving duties.

One week ago, Georgia got the victory against this Florida team by a score of 24-17. The Gators defensive unit let the Bulldogs rush for 119 yards on 37 attempts. Lawrence Cager put up a good outing, posting 132 yards on seven catches for Georgia. For Florida, Kyle Trask completed 21-of-33 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Lamical Perine (31 rushing yards on seven attempts) mounted the ground attack in the defeat while Freddie Swain (eight receptions, 91 yards, one TD) and Pitts (four catches, 78 yards) led the pass-catching corps.

Each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Vanderbilt has run the ball on 46.4 percent of its offensive possessions while Florida has an overall rush percentage of 48.3. The Commodores have rushed for 126 yards per game (including 117 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have seven touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Gators are totaling 129 rushing yards per contest (120 in conference) and have 13 total rush TDs.

The Commodores have averaged 191 yards through the air overall (156 per game against conference opposition) and have seven passing scores so far. The Gators have recorded 275 pass yards per outing (274.5 against SEC competition) and have 23 total pass TDs.

Vanderbilt has allowed opponents to run for an average of 203 yards and pass for 251 yards per game. Florida has been significantly better than that, giving up 123.6 yards per game on the ground and 204.7 to opposing teams in the air. The Gators are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.49 to opposing QBs, while the Commodores have given up a staggering 8.73 ANY/A.

Mo Hasan has put up 120 pass yards this season, and has connected on 7-of-11 attempts with one passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Hasan’s got a sparkling 11.33 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.

Kyle Trask has put up 1,448 yards, 12 TDs and three INTs for Florida. His ANY/A sits at 7.96 for the year and 6.99 over his last two games.

When these two schools faced each other a year ago, Florida emerged victorious by a score of 37-27.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators Free Prediction

SU Winner – Florida, ATS Winner – Vanderbilt, O/U – Over


Team Betting Notes

The Commodores offense has recorded six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Gators have accounted for five such plays.

The Vanderbilt defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Florida has given up five such plays.

The Vanderbilt offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Florida has created eight such runs.

Both defenses have allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Commodores have given up 49 running plays of 10+ yards while the Gators have given up 34 such plays.

The Florida defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 29 times this season. Vanderbilt has registered just 11 sacks.

As a team, Vanderbilt has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.

Florida has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.6 over its past two.

Over its last three contests, Florida is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Vanderbilt’s previous game was set at 51. The under cashed in the team’s 24-7 defeat to South Carolina.

In its last three matches, Vanderbilt is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.

The Over/Under for Florida’s previous match was set at 48. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 loss to Georgia.

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