Looking to win big? The Commodores and Bulldogs face off at 3:30 ET on SECN. The Bulldogs are hosting the game at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, MS. The over/under for this Southeastern conference contest is set at 138.5 points, with the Bulldogs being the favored team playing at home against the Commodores.
VANDERBILT COMMODORES VS MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores +14
This game will be played at Humphrey Coliseum at 3:30 ET on Saturday, January 20th.
WHY BET THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-70 in favor of the Bulldogs.
- Even though we have Mississippi State winning straight-up, we like Vanderbilt at +14.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 138.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 145 points.
Does Vanderbilt Have a Shot at a Road Win?
After losing their most recent game to Auburn by a score of 80-65, Vanderbilt will look to snap their four-game losing streak. On the road this season, the Commodores have gone 0-4, compared to their 5-8 record at home.
So far this year, Vanderbilt has gone 0-9 when considered the underdog. Currently, they are getting 14 points against Mississippi State, and the over/under for this game is set at 138.5 points.
Against the spread, Vanderbilt has gone 7-10 this season. On the road, the Commodores have an ATS mark of 2-2 and a 6-4 ATS record in their last 10 road games. As the underdog, Vanderbilt is 4-5 vs. the spread this year and 4-6 in their last 10 games as the underdog.
So far this season, the over/under record for Vanderbilt games is 5-12. Today’s line of 138.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this season (142.7). In their last three games, the average scoring total is 138 points, which is similar to their season average of 140.1 points per game. Their over/under record in their last three games is 1-2 and in their last five games, it is 1-4. On the year, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line of 138.5.
The Vanderbilt offense is coming off a game in which they scored 65 points vs. Auburn. Overall their field goal percentage was 37.7% while connecting on 4 threes. Currently leading the team in scoring is Ezra Manjon who comes into today’s matchup averaging 16. Tyrin Lawrence also heads into the game with a PPG average of 13.7.
On defense, Vanderbilt is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 72.2 points per game. Vanderbilt will look once again to perform well on defense, holding Auburn to just 37% shooting in their most recent game.
Will Mississippi State Make it Happen at Home?
Mississippi State enters this game as a 14-point favorite, and they have been favored in 15 of their 17 games this season, going 11-4 in those contests. The Bulldogs are 8-2 at home this season, and over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 8-2.
Overall, Mississippi State is 12-5 this season, and they have gone 1-3 in Southeastern Conference play. Their non-conference record is 11-2, and they have lost two straight games coming into this one.
As the favorite, Mississippi State has struggled against the spread this season, going just 8-7. Their ATS mark at home is just 5-5, and they have gone 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bulldogs are just 3-7 vs. the spread.
Mississippi State’s over/under record for the season sits at 8-8-1, and the average over/under line in their games is 138.4. So far, 10 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s over/under line of 138.5. In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0, and the average scoring total in those games is 157 points.
The Mississippi State offense is coming off a game where they scored 77 points against Kentucky. They posted a field goal percentage of 44.9% and connected on 9 threes. Leading the team in scoring was Tolu Smith with 26 points. Trey Fort also added 13 points for the Bulldogs.
This season, the Mississippi State defense has been impressive, holding the 58th position in the country while permitting an average of 66.3 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.3 threes per game vs. Vanderbilt. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 27.7%.