Looking to win big? The Beacons and Panthers face off at 8:00 ET on ESPN+. The Panthers are hosting the game at McLeod Center in Cedar Falls, IA. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 147.5 points, and Northern Iowa is favored by -15.5 to win at home against Valparaiso.


The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +15.5

This game will be played at McLeod Center at 8:00 ET on Tuesday, February 27th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-70 in favor of the Panthers.
  • Even though we have Northern Iowa winning straight-up, we like Valparaiso at +15.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 147.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Are the Beacons Ready for a Win at Cedar Falls?

Valparaiso has struggled mightily this season, as they enter this game with a 6-23 record. They have lost 10 straight games, and their record in Missouri Valley Conference play is just 2-16. On the road, the Beacons have gone 1-12, and they have lost six straight games away from home.

As for Northern Iowa, they are 15.5-point favorites in this matchup. Valparaiso has been the underdog in 22 of their 29 games, and they have gone just 2-20 in those contests. Their average scoring margin on the road is -10.6 points per game, and they are coming off an 80-68 loss to Murray State.

As the underdog this season, Valparaiso has gone 12-9-1 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 10-2-1, and over their last 10 games as the underdog, they are 5-5.

Today’s over/under line of 147.5 is higher than the average over/under line in Valparaiso’s games this season (143.9). Currently, their over/under record is 15-13. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 149 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1.

In their previous game, the Beacons’ offense finished with 68 points, which is right in line with their current average of 68 points per contest. The top scorer for the Beacons was Cooper Schwieger with 26 points, while Isaiah Stafford also chipped in with 13 points.

Currently, the Beacons’ defense holds the 255th rank in the nation, allowing 75.5 points per game. Against Murray State in their most recent game, the Valparaiso defense gave up a total of 80 points while allowing Murray State to hit 52% of their shots.

Can Northern Iowa Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

After winning their last game against Drake by a score of 91-77, Northern Iowa comes into this matchup with a record of 16-13. They have been especially good at home, going 9-4, and they are currently riding a three-game winning streak at home.

As the favorite, Northern Iowa has gone 10-5 this season, and they have been favored in 15 games. Their average scoring margin at home is +2.5 points per game.

Against the spread, Northern Iowa has an even 14-14 record this season. At home, their ATS mark is 8-5, and over their last three home games, they are 3-0 vs. the spread. As the favorite, the Panthers have gone 8-7 vs. the spread this year.

On the season, the over/under record in Northern Iowa games is 13-15. So far, the average scoring total in their games is 144.8 points compared to an average over/under line of 143.4. Today’s over/under line of 147.5 is higher than the average scoring total in their games this year. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 with an average scoring total of 152 points.

Northern Iowa’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 91 points vs. Drake. Overall, they hit 55.4% of their shots from the field and went 22/36 from the free-throw line. The top scorer for the Panthers was Tytan Anderson with 18 points, while Nate Heise also chipped in with 18 points.

At present, the Panthers’ defense is nationally ranked 153rd, allowing 71.2 points per game. In their previous game vs. Drake, the Bulldogs finished with a field goal percentage of 55% and a total of 77 points vs. Northern Iowa.