The Beacons and Bears are set to face off at 2:00 ET on ESPN+. The Bears will host the game at Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, MO. The odds for this Missouri Valley conference game currently have Missouri State as the -13 point favorite with the over/under line sitting at 145 points.


The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +13

This game will be played at Great Southern Bank Arena at 2:00 ET on Saturday, February 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-70 in favor of the Bears.
  • Even though we have Missouri State winning straight-up, we like Valparaiso at +13.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 145 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Will the Beacons Make it Happen on the Road?

Valparaiso is 6-20 overall and 2-13 in the Missouri Valley. They have lost seven in a row, and their record as the underdog is 2-17. On the road, the Beacons are 1-10, and their average scoring margin is -10.7.

In their last game, Valparaiso lost to Northern Iowa, 86-67. Over the last 10 games, they have gone 1-9 on the road, and they are 1-4 in their last five road games.

Valparaiso has been a solid team vs. the spread this season, going 13-11-1, but they have struggled in their last three games as the underdog, going 0-3. On the road this year, the Beacons have an impressive ATS mark of 8-2-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Valparaiso has a record of 6-4 vs. the spread.

Valparaiso’s over/under record this season is 13-12 and the average scoring total in their games is 142 points. Today’s over/under line of 145 is higher than their average OU line of 143.3. So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over is 3-0.

The Beacons’ offense finished with 67 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 68 points per contest. For the season, the Valparaiso offense has struggled to get to the free-throw line, ranking just 337th in terms of free-throw attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 40%.

So far, the Beacons’ defense is ranked 240th in the country at 74.8 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Northern Iowa, the Panthers finished with a field goal percentage of 45% and a total of 86 points vs. Valparaiso.

Do the Bears Have What it Takes to Win as Home Favorites?

Missouri State enters this game with a 14-12 overall record, including a 9-4 mark at home. They have gone 6-9 in Missouri Valley action, and they are currently on a three-game losing streak.

For the season, the Bears have been favored 11 times, going 8-3 in those games. Their average scoring margin at home is +4.8 compared to -5.7 on the road. In their last outing, they fell to Murray State by a score of 82-72.

As the favorite, Missouri State has gone 7-4 vs. the spread this season. At home, the Bears are 9-4 ATS this year and have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Today’s over/under line of 145 is higher than the average over/under line in Missouri State’s games this season (141.7). This year, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line.

The Missouri State offense is coming off a game where they scored 72 points against Murray State. They posted a field goal percentage of 45% and connected on 7 threes. On the offensive front, the Bears have a season-long field goal percentage of 43%, ranking 260th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 293rd in terms of percentage and 208th in three-pointers made.

On defense, Missouri State is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 71.3 points per game. The Missouri State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 82 points and allowed Murray State to connect on 8 threes.