Don’t miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Beacons and Aces. The game is starting at 8:00 ET on ESPN+, and it’s hosted by the Aces at Ford Center in Evansville, IN. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under for this game is set at 142 points, and the Aces are the home favorites against the Beacons in a Missouri Valley conference matchup.


The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +5.5

This game will be played at Ford Center at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, January 17th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-70 in favor of the Aces.
  • Even though we have Evansville winning straight-up, we like Valparaiso at +5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 142 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Will the Beacons Win on the Road?

Valparaiso has struggled on the road this season, going just 1-6 compared to their 3-6 record at home. They have lost nine of their last 10 road games and have been outscored by an average of 8.3 points per game on the road.

As an underdog, the Beacons are just 1-10 this season, and they come into this game as 5.5-point underdogs. They are 5-12 overall and 1-5 in Missouri Valley Conference play.

As the underdog, Valparaiso has an ATS record of 6-4-1 this season. On the road, the Beacons are 5-1-1 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, Valpo is 5-4-1 ATS.

Valparaiso’s over/under record for the season sits at 5-11 and today’s line of 142 is just below the average over/under line in their games (142.8). So far, eight of their games have had a higher over/under line than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 128 points, which is lower than the season average of 136.1 points per game.

In contrast to their season average of 66.5 points per game, the Valparaiso had a below average performance. They scored 59 points against Illinois State and had a field goal percentage of 43.1%. Isaiah Stafford is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 16.2 as they approach today’s matchup. In addition, Cooper Schwieger brings a PPG average of 10.6 into the game.

At this time, the Beacons’ defense is positioned 134th in the country, permitting 71.0 points per game. In their previous game vs. Illinois State, the Redbirds finished with a field goal percentage of 32% and a total of 50 points vs. Valparaiso.

Can Evansville Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

Evansville has been much better at home this season, going 5-2 compared to 4-5 on the road. They have lost two straight games at home, but they are 6-4 in their last 10 games at home.

Overall, the Aces are 10-7 this season and have lost five straight games. They are 1-5 in Missouri Valley Conference play and 9-2 in non-conference games.

As the favorite, Evansville has gone 2-2 against the spread this season. Their overall ATS record is 10-6, and they are 4-3 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Aces have gone 4-6 vs. the spread.

This season, the average over/under line in Evansville games is 146.8 and their OU record is 6-10. So far, 12 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today’s mark of 142. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 137 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 3-7.

Against Missouri State, the Evansville had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 76.1 points per game. They scored 64 points and posted a field goal percentage of 33.9% in the game. The top scorer for the Aces was Joshua Hughes with 22 points, while Antonio Thomas also added 15 to the scoreboard.

The Aces’ defense is presently ranked 195th nationally, allowing an average of 73.5 points per contest. In their most recent game, the Evansville defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Missouri State knocked down 12 three-pointers on their way to 74 points.