Home Golf 2021 Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Odds & Picks

2021 Valero Texas Open Golf Betting Odds & Picks

The Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio is the last chance for players to smooth out any of the rough edges before The Masters at Augusta National. We actually have a pretty weak field on hand overall for this week’s tournament, as a lot of players must feel comfortable about their current form heading into the first major of the calendar year.

Dustin Johnson is the big favorite, but instead of seeing names like Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Webb Simpson, Collin Morikawa, or Rory McIlroy right behind him, we see names like Jordan Spieth, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Corey Conners, and Abraham Ancer.

Rather than focus on who is not there, we’ll focus on who is there as we handicap the 2021 Valero Texas Open with odds from BetAnySports.eu. All players are listed below the body of the article.

The Odds

(Editor’s note: After posting, Dustin Johnson withdrew from the event.)

DJ is the +650 favorite, but the weakness of this field leaves us with only three additional players under 22/1 per the odds at BetAnySports. BAS lists Jordan Spieth as the second favorite with a price double that of Johnson at +1300. Scottie Scheffler, who was in the Final Four last week at the WGC-Dell Match Play, joins Tony Finau at +1600. Everybody else is +2200 or higher.

Guys like reigning champion Corey Conners and Abraham Ancer are +2500, with Brendan Steele and Ryan Palmer at +2800, Charley Hoffman at +3000, Cameron Tringle and Chris Kirk at +3300 and +3500, respectively. This is simply not a high-end field, but it is a full points event and represents the last chance for players to qualify for The Masters.

The Field

Conners was a Monday qualifier back in 2019 that went on to win the tournament. You don’t have a lot of big names on the winners list here. With its position just before The Masters or previously as an alternate event in the fall, players like Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell, Charley Hoffman, Jimmy Walker, Steven Bowditch, Martin Laird, Ben Curtis, Brendan Steele, and Zach Johnson have won here over the last 10 tournaments.

There are several players in the field this week that need a win to meet the criteria required to tee off at Augusta. Rickie Fowler is one of them, along with Hoffman, Brandt Snedeker, Jim Furyk, Adam Hadwin, and Nick Taylor, just to name a few.

Course Profile

TPC San Antonio features the Oaks Course, a par 72 just shy of 7,500 yards. It is a Greg Norman design with some large green complexes. Several of the greens seem to be multi-tiered, so there are some valleys that you do not want to be in. Club selection will be important here with the large greens and all kinds of pin placement opportunities for tournament officials.

Putters and wedges are important on this course, along with strokes gained on approach, which is just a key part of the handicap every week. Per DataGolf, some similar courses to TPC San Antonio are Nine Bridges, where the CJ Cup has been played, TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, and even Monterey Peninsula, one of the courses used during the Pebble Beach Pro-Am most years.

Holes 17 and 18 are great birdie opportunities, so if we have some drama on the back nine coming to the clubhouse, par will be a bad score for those in the mix.

Yay or Neigh?

This is our Horse for Course section, which takes a look at players that have had strong results at a given course for a certain event. Conners is the most recent winner among several in the field. Conners did something in 2019 that nobody else did – shoot all four rounds in the 60s. His 20-under was the best winning score since Tommy Armour III shot 26-under in 2003.

Hoffman won in 2016 and was also runner-up in 2019 and 2011. He ended a string of seven straight top-15 finishes when he wound up 40th in 2017, but perhaps started up a new one with his finish in 2019.

Ryan Moore scored a top-five finish two years ago with an outright third-place finish. He has now finished in the top 20 in all four starts at TPC San Antonio. Another Ryan that has played well here is Palmer with four top-10 finishes. He did miss the cut here in 2019, but was sixth, fourth, and sixth from 2015-17.

Jordan Spieth played here for the first time since 2015 two years ago and finished T-30th. He was runner-up in 2015 and 10th in 2014. He’s at such a short price this week, though, that there isn’t a whole lot of value.

Brendan Steele has a win and two other top-10 finishes. Kevin Streelman has back-to-back top-10 finishes here. Zach Johnson is back in the field with a couple of wins and various other top 10s.

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Current Form

We really don’t have a lot of guys in this field in top-notch current form. With some invitational events recently, a couple of WGC events, and just the overall strength of the field, finding guys that are in a nice groove is a bit of a challenge.

Leaving the WGC-Dell Match Play out of the equation, here are a few players alphabetically that have done well recently. Keegan Bradley has made three straight cuts with a top-10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then a couple top-30 finishes at the PLAYERS and Honda Classic. Conners was top-10 at the API and the PLAYERS before skipping the Honda. Adam Hadwin was eighth at the Honda and inside the top 30 in both the Genesis Open and the PLAYERS.

Chris Kirk has a couple of top-25 finishes in his last three events. Denny McCarthy was T-3rd in the Honda Classic and has made three cuts in a row. Brendan Steele has an 18th and a third in his last three events.

Like I said, there really aren’t a lot of guys running all that great right now.

Handicap & Picks

Throw some darts and look for some grenade prices this week. There simply aren’t a lot of must-bet guys this week. It is not an easy event to handicap.

Bradley is eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green and sixth in SG: Approach this year at +5000. He’s the best of anybody in the field in that stat not named Dustin Johnson. His putter has been terrible, but Corey Conners isn’t a good putter and he won here two years ago with his ball striking and a surprisingly good performance on the greens. Bradley is the shortest price I’ll be interested in.

Adam Hadwin is too good to be 60/1 in this field. Hadwin has been good with his wedges and ranks just outside the top 50 in putting. Doug Ghim is probably too good to be +7000, but everybody remembers his huge collapse at the PLAYERS Championship and the MC that followed at the Honda. Ghim is 20th in SG: Approach.

Those are the two I have now, but may look at some triple-digit shots more as the tournament approaches.

Coverage of the Valero Texas Open will be on Golf Channel and NBC.

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ODDS FOR THE 2021 VALERO TEXAS OPEN

Dustin Johnson +650
Jordan Spieth +1300
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Tony Finau +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
Corey Conners +2500
Abraham Ancer +2500
Brendan Steele +2800
Ryan Palmer +2800
Charley Hoffman +3000
Cameron Tringale +3300
Chris Kirk +3500
Si Woo Kim +4000
Zach Johnson +5000
Cameron Davis +5000
Keegan Bradley +5000
Lanto Griffin +5500
Matt Kuchar +5500
Ryan Moore +6000
Sam Burns +6000
Adam Hadwin +6000
Harold Varner III +6600
Gary Woodland +6600
Charles Howell III +6600
Andrew Putnam +6600
Aaron Wise +7000
Branden Grace +7000
Byeong Hun An +7000
Danny Willett +7000
Doug Ghim +7000
Jhonattan Vegas +7000
Joel Dahmen +7000
Phil Mickelson +7000
Rickie Fowler +7000
Matt Wallace +7000
Erik Van Rooyen +7500
Denny McCarthy +8000
John Huh +8000
Sam Ryder +8000
Sebastian Munoz +8000
Matthew NeSmith +9000
Lucas Glover +9000
Martin Laird +9000
Harry Higgs +9000
Adam Long +9000
Bernd Wiesberger +10000
Patton Kizzire +10000
Russell Knox +10000
Tom Hoge +10000
Will Gordon +11000
Sepp Straka +11000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +11000
Chase Seiffert +11000
Graeme McDowell +11000
Henrik Norlander +12500
Jim Furyk +12500
Kevin Chappell +12500
Cameron Champ +12500
Brandon Hagy +12500
Brice Garnett +12500
Luke List +12500
Nate Lashley +14000
Rafael Campos +14000
Adam Schenk +14000
Cameron Percy +15000
Keith Mitchell +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
Doc Redman +15000
Roger Sloan +15000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Nick Taylor +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Kyle Stanley +15000
Tom Lewis +15000
Rafa Cabrera-Bello +16000
Brandt Snedeker +16000
Bronson Burgoon +17500
Brian Stuard +17500
Charl Schwartzel +17500
Chesson Hadley +17500
J.B. Holmes +17500
Peter Malnati +17500
Wesley Bryan +17500
Scott Brown +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Robby Shelton +20000
Michael Gligic +20000
Joseph Bramlett +20000
Camilo Villegas +20000
Ben Martin +20000
Bo Hoag +20000
Austin Eckroat +20000
Andrew Landry +20000
David Hearn +22500
Jason Dufner +22500
Akshay Bhatia +22500
Ryan Armour +22500
Troy Merritt +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Ted Potter, Jr. +25000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +25000
Kramer Hickok +25000
Danny Lee +25000
Henrik Stenson +25000
Beau Hossler +25000
Brian Gay +27500
Kristoffer Ventura +27500
Jimmy Walker +27500
Sung Kang +27500
Scott Harrington +27500
Padraig Harrington +27500
Rob Oppenheim +30000
Sebastian Cappelen +30000
Vaughn Taylor +30000
Vincent Whaley +30000
J.J. Spaun +30000
Anirban Lahiri +30000
Austin Cook +30000
D.J. Trahan +30000
Satoshi Kodaira +35000
Sean O’Hair +40000
Xinjun Zhang +40000
Michael Kim +40000
Nick Watney +40000
Luke Donald +40000
Hank Lebioda +40000
Jerry Kelly +50000
K.J. Choi +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
Davis Love III +50000
Sam Bennett +50000
Seung-Yul Noh +50000
Bo Van Pelt +60000
D.A. Points +100000
Kevin Stadler +100000
Hunter Mahan +100000
Carlos Sainz, Jr. +100000
Mac Meissner +100000
Martin Trainer +100000

 

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