The Utah State Aggies (-13) will meet their conference nemesis New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to FCBK.
Utah State at New Mexico Betting Odds 11/30/2019
The spread for this MWC game is sitting at 13 points in favor of Utah State. The Aggies are currently receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Lobos are +375. Some decent in-game betting possibilities should present themselves during this matchup, and the over/under (O/U) has been set at 61 points.
The Aggies are 6-5 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against MWC opponents. The Lobos are 2-9 SU overall and 0-7 SU in conference play. The Aggies are 6-5 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.8 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-6.
The Lobos have lost 4.0 units this season. They’re 4-7 ATS and also have an O/U record of 5-6.
The Aggies are looking to bounce back after a 56-21 defeat to Boise State last weekTheir defense allowed the Broncos to run for 297 yards on 46 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. George Holani was unmatched for the Broncos in that one with 178 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 16 attempts. Offensively, the Aggies completed 27-of-47 passes for 307 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Jordan Love went 21-for-36 for 229 yards, one touchdown and one interception while Henry Colombi completed six-of-11 for 78 yards and one interception. Gerold Bright (44 rushing yards on 10 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack in the loss while Jordan Nathan (seven receptions, 46 yards) and Caleb Repp (five catches, 47 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties.
New Mexico just fell in a one-sided affair, 44-22 to Air Force. The team’s defense let the Falcons pass for 327 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 213 yards and two scores. Benjamin Waters torched the defense, recording 171 yards and two touchdowns on four catches for Air Force. As a group, the Lobos collectively completed eight-of-18 passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti went three-for-11 for 35 yards while Trae Hall was five-of-seven for 55 yards and two touchdowns. Bobby Cole (58 rushing yards on 11 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Salanoa-Tuioti (79 yards on eight carries) led the ground game in the defeat while Jordan Kress (three receptions, 24 yards, one TD) and Cedric Patterson III (two catches, 29 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Utah State’s run the ball on 46.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Mexico has a rush percentage of 59 percent. The Aggies have rushed for 145 yards per game (including 135 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 14 scores via handoffs this year. The Lobos are logging 199 rushing yards per contest (195 in conference) and have 18 total rush TDs.
If the numbers so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Lobos should own an advantage when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has given up just 15 sacks while their D-line has logged 22 sacks. The Aggies offensive line has given up 19 sacks and their defense has forced only 18 sacks.
The Aggies have averaged 285 yards in the air overall (257 per game against conference opposition) and have 16 passing scores so far. The Lobos have recorded 203 pass yards per outing (178.3 in the MWC) and have 11 total pass TDs.
Utah State should have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 191 yards and pass for 245 yards per game. New Mexico has allowed 161.4 yards per game on the ground and 335 to opponents in the air. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.52 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have given up a staggering 10.04 ANY/A.
Love is up to 2,631 passing yards on the year. He’s connected on 227-of-370 attempts with 12 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Love’s got a 5.70 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.01 over the last two outings.
Siaosi Mariner, Gerold Bright and Deven Thompkins have combined for 463 total yards and three touchdowns as a trio over the last couple of outings.
Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti has tallied 1,285 yards, seven TDs and six INTs for New Mexico. His ANY/A sits at 6.11 for the season and 5.03 across his last two games.
We also expect the New Mexico offense to spread things out this Saturday. Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti (243 rushing yards, zero receiving yards on the year), Bobby Cole (96 rush yards, two rush TDs) and Emmanuel Logan-Greene (133 receiving yards) have combined for 250 yards from scrimmage over the last two games.
When these two teams met last year, Utah State won by six touchdowns 61-19.
Utah State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos Free Pick
SU Winner – Utah State, ATS Winner – Utah State, O/U – Under
The New Mexico offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Utah State has lost six.
The New Mexico defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 22 times this year. Utah State has registered 18 sacks.
Utah State has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.9 over its last two.
New Mexico has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.4 over its past two.
In its last three matches, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Utah State’s last game was set at 54. The over cashed in the team’s 56-21 defeat to Boise State.
In its last three contests, Utah State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for New Mexico’s last game was 57.5. The over cashed in the 44-22 defeat to Air Force.
New Mexico has lost 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a three-point win over New Mexico State on September 21st representing the only victory over that stretch.