Looking to win big? The Aggies and Bulldogs face off at 10:00 ET on MWN. The Bulldogs are hosting the game at Save Mart Center in Fresno, CA. Utah State come into this Mountain West conference matchup as the -11.5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 144.5 points.


The Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +11.5

This game will be played at Save Mart Center at 10:00 ET on Tuesday, February 27th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Bulldogs.
  • Not only will Fresno State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +11.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 144.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

Is a Win at Fresno Possible for the Aggies?

Utah State has been dominant at home, going 12-1 on the year compared to 8-3 on the road. They have won their last two games at home, and their average scoring margin at home is +12.8 compared to +3.9 on the road.

Overall, the Aggies have gone 22-5 this season, including a 10-3 mark in Mountain West play. They are 19-1 when favored, and they are favored by 11.5 points today. Their average scoring margin this year is +9.1.

Utah State has an ATS record of 14-9-1 this season, including a mark of 5-5-1 on the road. As the favorite, the Aggies are 13-6-1 vs. the spread this year and they have gone 2-0-1 in their last three games as the favorite. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Utah State has a record of 7-2-1.

This season, the over/under record for Utah State games is 13-11, and today’s over/under line of 144.5 is similar to the season-long average OU line in their games (144.9). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 140 points, which is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (144.9). Overall, their last three games have an over/under record of 1-2.

The Utah State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 68 points vs. San Diego State. Overall their field goal percentage was 49% while connecting on 7 threes. Offensively, the Aggies hold a season-long field goal percentage of 49%, placing them 30th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 268th in terms of percentage and 302nd in three-pointers made.

At this time, the Aggies’ defense is positioned 105th in the country, permitting 69.3 points per game. Utah State’s defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the San Diego State offense to knock down 49% of their shots on their way to putting up 63 points.

Will the Bulldogs Make it Happen at Home?

Despite being the underdog, Fresno State has been the favorite in 10 of its 27 games this season, going 8-2 in those matchups. Their average scoring margin at home is -2.7 points per game.

The Bulldogs are coming off a 73-41 loss to San Diego State, and they have lost three straight games at home. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 4-6.

As the underdog this season, Fresno State has gone just 5-11 vs. the spread. At home, their ATS mark is 7-9 this year and over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bulldogs are 5-5.

So far this season, the over/under record for Fresno State games is 15-11. Today’s over/under line of 144.5 is higher than the average over/under line in their games of 138. This year, 14 of their games have finished with more points than today’s over/under line. Over their last three games, their over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total in those games is 133 points.

In their latest game, Fresno State offense put up 41 points against San Diego State. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 24.6% and made 5 threes. Currently leading the team in scoring is Isaiah Hill who comes into today’s matchup averaging 12.2. Xavier Dusell also heads into the game with a PPG average of 11.3.

On defense, Fresno State is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 72.7 points per game. In today’s game, the Fresno State defense will be looking to once again do a good job defending the three-point line, as they gave up just 5 three-pointers while giving up 73 points.