Updated NFL Power Ratings – Week 15

Last Updated: 2018-12-13

The Eagles losing by a touchdown in overtime kept us from a big week, as both methods had Philadelphia +3.5 and we ended up a combined 7-5 for the week, sweeping our totals plays, but ending up 1-3 in Home-Away sides and 0-2 in overall sides with the Eagles the primary culprit. We get the addition of Saturday games starting this week, so wanted to make sure these were up early this week and there are no shortage of plays this week.

Home – Away Ratings Sides (31-35-4):  Jets +6, Denver -3, Vikings -7, Baltimore -8, Dallas +3, Lions +2.5, Titans +2.5, Eagles +10.

Home-Away Ratings Totals (47-29-1):  KC under 53.5, Houston over 41.5, Vikes under 44.5, Bengals under 46, Ravens over 46.5, Dallas under 47, Steelers over 52.5, Rams over 53.

Overall Sides (14-13-1):  Bengals -3, Lions +2.5.

Overall Totals (6-10):  Texans over 41.5, Denver under 45.

Power Rating Key

You’ll see three sets of numbers listed after each team. The first number is a team’s home rating, while the second is a team road’s rating. The third is an overall rating if you don’t want to keep track of separate home and away ratings, but it is a bit more complicated when it comes to using.

To get a predicted score, simply add a team’s offensive number to its opponents defensive number. If Oakland is at Denver, we would have Oakland’s road offensive rating of 14 plus Denver’s home defensive rating of (-1) for a projection of 13 points. Denver’s home offensive rating of 23 would be added to Oakland’s road defensive rating of 3 to get 26, so our projected score is 26-13 for the Broncos.

If Denver is at Oakland we’re going to have Denver’s away offensive rating of 17 added to Oakland’s 4, giving us 21, while the Raiders’ home offensive rating of 24 is added to Denver’s 2 giving us 26, so we predict the Raiders 26-21 in a much higher-scoring game.

Now, if you want to use the overall PR, it works in the same way, but to account for home field advantage subtract one point from the road team’s predicted score and add two points to the home team’s predicted score. The overall PR predicts Denver 23-15 without accounting for home field. If the Broncos are home, our projection is Denver 25-14, while we would have the Broncos 22-19vc  if the game was played in Oakland.

Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC East
Philadelphia 26 – (-4) 29 – 3 24 – (-3)
Dallas 22 – 1 20 – (-5) 20 – (-2)
Washington 21- 3 20 – 2 18 – 3
NY Giants 18 – 6 19 – 1 22 – 3
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC South
NO Saints 33 – 3 27 – (-3) 32 – (-2)
Carolina 27 – 1 23 – (-1) 25 – 1
Atlanta 26 – (-1) 20 – 1 24 – 2
Tampa Bay 20 – (-2) 22 – 10 22 – 4
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC North
Minnesota 24 – (-5) 21 – 0 21 – (-3)
Green Bay 25 – 0 26 – 5 24 – 2
Detroit 24 – 2 22 – 2 22 – 1
Chicago 23 – (-4) 19 – (-1) 22 – (-3)
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC West
LA Rams 30 – 3 31- (-3) 30 – 0
Seattle 27 – 1 22 – (-5) 26 – (-4)
SF 49ers 22 – 4 21 – 1 21 – 3
Arizona 17 -1 15 – 2 15 – 2
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC East
New England 31 – 1 28 – 3  29- (-1)
Miami 24 – 1 14 – 4 18 – 3
Buffalo 17 – 1 16 -1 16 – 2
NY Jets 22 – 4 17 -1 20 – 4
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC South
Jaguars 20 – (-5) 23 – 1 19 – (-1)
Houston 26 – 3 20 – 2 23 – 1
Tenn. Titans 22 – 0 17- 0 19 – (-1)
Indy Colts 22 – 0 19 – 4 24 – (-1)
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC North
Pittsburgh 31 – 4 24 – (-5) 26 – 0
Cincinnati 20 – 1 20 – 3 20 – 4
Baltimore 27 – (-2) 21 – (-3) 24 – (-4)
Cleveland 15 – 1 18 – 5 18 – 1
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC West
LA Chargers 26 – (-2) 22 – (-4) 25 – (-4)
KC Chiefs 29 – (-2) 33 – 7 31 -2
Oakland 24 – 4 14 – 3 17 – 3
Denver 23 – (-1) 17 – 2 20 – (-2)

 

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