Updated NFL Power Ratings – Super Bowl

Date | AuthorAllen Moody

Last Updated: 2019-02-01

We won our lone play on the Rams plus the points last week and now wrap-up the season with a look at the Super Bowl, in what was a bit of a down year for the power ratings with a combined 125-115-9 mark, but they do serve a purpose as a decent tool and point you to the right side or total more often than not. We did lack the one big week that the numbers have shown in some previous seasons. A little more work is probably needed for the beginning numbers and adjusting for personnel changes.

Onto the game, we can look at it from two different sets of numbers, but for the home-away ratings, we’ll use the away ratings of both teams, which tends to be the best way to gauge neutral field games, along with the overall power ratings and no home field calculations.

The overall power ratings are calling for the Patriots to pull out a 28-27 decision, while the Rams fare much better using the away power ratings, primarily due to New England’s struggles on grass, particularly on defense, and predicts the Rams to come out with a 32-24 victory, which will give us the final play of the season on the Rams plus the points.

 

Home – Away Ratings Sides (43-44-5):  Rams +2.5.

Home-Away Ratings Totals (55-41-2): 

Overall Sides (18-16-2):  

Overall Totals (9-13):  

Power Rating Key

You’ll see three sets of numbers listed after each team. The first number is a team’s home rating, while the second is a team road’s rating. The third is an overall rating if you don’t want to keep track of separate home and away ratings, but it is a bit more complicated when it comes to using.

To get a predicted score, simply add a team’s offensive number to its opponents defensive number. If Oakland is at Denver, we would have Oakland’s road offensive rating of 14 plus Denver’s home defensive rating of (-1) for a projection of 13 points. Denver’s home offensive rating of 22 would be added to Oakland’s road defensive rating of 3 to get 25, so our projected score is 25-13 for the Broncos.

If Denver is at Oakland we’re going to have Denver’s away offensive rating of 17 added to Oakland’s 4, giving us 21, while the Raiders’ home offensive rating of 24 is added to Denver’s 2 giving us 26, so we predict the Raiders 26-21 in a much higher-scoring game.

Now, if you want to use the overall PR, it works in the same way, but to account for home field advantage subtract one point from the road team’s predicted score and add two points to the home team’s predicted score. The overall PR predicts Denver 21-17 without accounting for home field. If the Broncos are home, our projection is Denver 23-16, while we would have the Broncos 20-19  if the game was played in Oakland.

Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC East
Philadelphia 26 – (-3) 27 – 0 24 – (-2)
Dallas 22 – 1 20 – (-4) 20- (-1)
Washington 21- 2 20 – 2 18 – 2
NY Giants 18 – 7 20 – 1 23 – 4
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC South
NO Saints 32 – 1 26 – (-4) 29 – (-3)
Carolina 25 – 0 23 – (-1) 23 – 0
Atlanta 27 – (-1) 21 – 1 25 – 1
Tampa Bay 21 – (-1) 21 – 9 23 – 4
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC North
Minnesota 24 – (-3) 21 – (-1) 21 – (-3)
Green Bay 24 – 1 27 – 6 24 – 4
Detroit 23 – 2 22 – 1 21 – 0
Chicago 22 – (-5) 19 – (-3) 22 – (-5)
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
NFC West
LA Rams 30 – 4 30- (-3) 30 – (-1)
Seattle 28 – 1 22 – (-4) 26 – (-4)
SF 49ers 23 – 4 22 – 2 22 – 4
Arizona 17 -1 15 – 1 14 – 1
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC East
New England 31 – 0 27 – 2  29- (-3)
Miami 23 – 1 14 – 5 16 – 4
Buffalo 18 – 0 16 -0 17 – 1
NY Jets 23 – 5 16 -1 20 – 5
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC South
Jaguars 19 – (-5) 22 – 0 17 – (-2)
Houston 25 – 2 21 – 2 23 – 0
Tenn. Titans 22 – 1 17- (-1) 19 – (-1)
Indy Colts 22 – 0 20 – 3 24 – (-2)
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC North
Pittsburgh 29 – 2 24 – (-5) 24 – (-2)
Cincinnati 20 – 1 21- 2 21 – 3
Baltimore 26 – (-2) 21 – (-4) 23 – (-4)
Cleveland 15 – 1 19 – 4 19 – 1
Home PR Away PR Overall PR
AFC West
LA Chargers 25 – (-2) 23 – (-4) 24 – (-4)
KC Chiefs 29 – (-2) 33 – 8 31 -0
Oakland 24 – 4 13 – 3 17 – 2
Denver 21 – (-1) 17 – 2 18 – (-1)

 

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