Looking to win big? The Runnin’ Rebels and Bulldogs face off at 11:00 ET on CBSS. The Bulldogs are hosting the game at Save Mart Center in Fresno, CA. UNLV is favored by -4.5 in this Mountain West conference matchup the against Fresno State. The over/under for the game is set at 138.5 points.

UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS VS FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Fresno State Bulldogs +4.5

This game will be played at Save Mart Center at 11:00 ET on Wednesday, February 14th.

WHY BET THE FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Bulldogs.
  • Not only will Fresno State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +4.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 138.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Taking a Look at the Runnin’ Rebels Chances in Fresno

UNLV has been playing well lately, as they have won four straight games. So far this season, they have gone 13-9, including a 6-4 record in Mountain West action.

Today, they are the favorites, as they have gone 7-3 when favored. On the road, they have gone 4-2, and their average scoring margin in these games is +3.2. Currently, they are on a two-game road winning streak.

UNLV has been solid against the spread this season, going 13-6. Their ATS record is even better on the road, where they are 5-1. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Runnin’ Rebels have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

So far this season, the over/under record for UNLV games is 12-7 and today’s line of 138.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (144). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 137 points and their over/under record during this stretch is 2-1.

The Runnin’ Rebels’ offense wrapped up their last game with 80 points, aligning closely with their current season average of 75.4 points per contest. Dedan Thomas Jr. led the scoring for the Runnin’ Rebels, contributing 25 points. Additionally, Rob Whaley Jr. chipped in with 16 points.

Currently, the Runnin’ Rebels’ defense holds the 109th rank in the nation, allowing 70.0 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, UNLV’s defense has allowed opponents to shoot 41.5% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 32.2% this season.

Are the Bulldogs Ready for a Home Win?

Through 24 games, Fresno State has an 11-13 record, including a 4-7 mark in Mountain West Conference play. The Bulldogs have won two straight games and are coming off a 68-66 victory over Air Force. On the season, Fresno State is 7-7 at home, and over their last 10 games at the Save Mart Center, they are 5-5.

As an underdog, Fresno State is just 2-11 this year, and they have gone 8-2 when favored. So far, the Bulldogs have been the underdog in 13 of their 24 games. For the season, Fresno State has been outscored by an average of 0.6 points per game at home.

As the underdog, Fresno State has gone 4-9 vs. the spread this season. However, they have a 6-8 ATS mark at home and are 2-1 vs. the spread in their last 3 home games. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Bulldogs have a 4-6 ATS record.

So far this season, the over/under record for Fresno State games is 14-9 and today’s over/under line of 138.5 is very close to the average over/under line in their games this year (138.1). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 131 points and this season, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line.

The Fresno State offense is coming off a game where they scored 68 points against Air Force. They posted a field goal percentage of 57.1% and connected on 8 threes. The team’s top scorer is Isaiah Hill, who enters today’s matchup with an average of 12.3, while Xavier Dusell also carries a PPG average of 11.1 into the game.

In terms of defense, Fresno State is currently on par with the NCAA average for points allowed, giving up an average of 72.2 points per game. The Fresno State defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 66 points and allowed Air Force to connect on 9 threes.