Looking to win big? The Flames and Bears face off at 2:00 ET on ESPN+. The Bears are hosting the game at Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, MO. This Missouri Valley conference matchup has an over/under of 145 points, and Missouri State is favored to win by -4.5 at home vs. UIC.


The Pick: Missouri State Bears -4.5

This game will be played at Great Southern Bank Arena at 2:00 ET on Sunday, March 3rd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Bears.
  • Not only will Missouri State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -4.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 145 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.

No Pressure for UIC as Away Dogs

UIC comes into the game with an 11-19 record and a 4-14 record in Missouri Valley Conference play. They have gone 7-5 in non-conference games this season. On the road, the Flames are 4-10, and they have lost their last two games away from home.

For the season, UIC has been the underdog in 18 of their 30 games, going 5-13 in those contests. As the underdog, the Flames have gone 2-8 in their last 10 games.

As the underdog this season, UIC has gone 9-8-1 vs. the spread. Over their last three games as the underdog, the Flames are 1-1-1 vs. the spread and they are 3-1-1 vs. the spread in their last five games as the underdog. On the road, UIC has an ATS record of 7-6-1 this year and they are 3-6-1 vs. the spread in their last 10 road games.

So far this season, the over/under record in UIC games is 11-17. The average over/under line in their games is 140.9 and their games have averaged 139.5 points. Today’s over/under line of 145 is higher than the average OU line in their games this year. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total in those games is 179 points.

The Flames’ offense finished with 73 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 71 points per contest. Isaiah Rivera led the team in scoring, putting up 16 points. Additionally, Toby Okani contributed 15 points for the Flames.

So far, the Flames’ defense is ranked 146th in the country at 71.2 points per contest. In today’s game vs. Missouri State, the UIC defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, UIC made 22 free-throws vs. the Flames.

Are Missouri State Ready for a Home Win?

Missouri State enters this game with a 15-15 overall record, including a 10-5 mark at home. They have lost three straight games and are 7-12 in Missouri Valley Conference action.

On the season, the Bears have been favored in 12 games, going 9-3 in those contests. Their average scoring margin at home is +3.1 points per game.

Missouri State has an ATS record of 14-14-1 this season, including a mark of 9-6 at home. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Bears are 6-4 vs. the spread.

Today’s over/under line of 145 is higher than the average over/under line in Missouri State’s games this season (142). So far, 15 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 155 points, and their over/under record in their last 10 games is 8-2.

The Missouri State offense is coming off a game where they scored 74 points against Illinois State. They posted a field goal percentage of 52.5% and connected on 5 threes. In terms of offense, the Bears have a season-long field goal percentage of 44%, putting them 212nd in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 301st in percentage and 226th in three-pointers made.

Coming into today’s game, the Missouri State defense is giving up an average of 72.8 points per contest. So far, the Missouri State defense is giving up an average of 8.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.7 times per game (581st).