UFC on FX 4 Preview and Odds

1340099461_7502_UFC on FX 4 poster

Gray Maynard (11-1-1) vs. Clay Guida (29-9)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Maynard -400, Guida +300

Clay Guida and Gray Maynard will look to position themselves among the elite in the lightweight division as they headline the UFC on FX 4 card.

Both of these fighters enter this bout looking to rebound from a loss with Maynard falling via TKO to Frankie Edgar in his last bout, and Guida losing to Ben Henderson in a decision. Maynard’s attack strategy is based in wrestling, so he will be looking to take down Guida, but at the same time Maynard will be setting it up with a strong striking attack that may dominate the early parts of this fight. Guida is well prepared to handle that sort of ground-and-pound attack with strong wrestling skills to counteract his foe and flexibility that is among the best in this weight class. He will be extremely hard to take down and bully on the ground, making this fight an extra challenge for Maynard. Because they are both such strong wrestlers, takedowns could be a difficult avenue to win this fight, but grappling is realistic, especially for Guida who has won 15 of his 29 career fights via submission and is also more suited to prevail if this fight goes the distance.

Maynard’s loss to Edgar in October was for the UFC lightweight championship and came nine months after the two fought to a draw in January. Back in 2008, Maynard beat Edgar for his fifth career win. Indeed, Maynard established himself as belonging with the division’s best in that fight, though a loss here could certainly damage himself within the class. Maynard may have a chance at knocking Guida out in this fight if he can get his striking going early, otherwise his best chance is to prolong this battle and win via decision.

Before Guida’s defeat at the hands of Ben Henderson last Novemeber, he had won four fights in a row, most recently with a decision over Anthony Pettis and a submission of Takanori Gomi. At 5-foot-7, he cedes an inch to Maynard in this fight but that shouldn’t be a huge deal especially as they both will attempt to take each other down from the opening bell. Should that be the style of this fight, Guida should have the advantage as the player more capable of turning those circumstances into a submission victory.
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Sam Stout (18-7-1) vs. Spencer Fisher (25-8)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Stout -340, Fisher +260

In the second lightweight bout on UFC on FX 4’s main card, Sam Stout and Spencer Fisher will come to blows, rekindling an old rivalry.

Stout and Fisher are both coming off losses, with Fisher dropping two in a row. The first one of those was a unanimous decision to Ross Pearson, while in the most recent one last August, he was TKO’ed by Thiago Tavares. Stout is coming off a decision loss to Tavares. These two lightweights have fought twice before, with Stout winning a split decision in 2006 and Stout taking a unanimous decision in 2007. Fisher usually struggles most against opponents who can grapple well, and Stout does not fall into that category. Still, Stout is a phenomenal striker who at 28 years old is still in his prime and should be able to dictate the pace of this fight with his hands and feet. At 36, Fisher has lost four of his past five UFC bouts and will not be able to keep up with his former rival.

Before his lost to Tavares, “Hands of Stone” Stout had won two fights in a row over Yves Edwards and Paul Taylor. And there were encouraging signs late in that fight against Tavares, he just got off to a rough start in that bout. He’s won by knockout nine times in his career, but doesn’t need to win that way; he can easily out-strike his opponents for an entire fight and win via decision. This bout looks like it may go that way, with his Muay Thai skills wearing Fisher out.

“The King” Fisher of old might have a chance in this fight, but he just doesn’t look like that fighter anymore. At 5-foot-7 he also cedes two inches to Stout, something that could be important in this fight that will take place largely standing up. He might pack a slightly larger punch than Stout, but he shouldn’t be able to land close to the number that Stout will in this bout.

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Cole Ryan

Cole started off as a part time handicapper and a full time computer programmer. After developing a computer program that consistently provided winners in NFL, NBA, MLB, and college sports Cole went into full time handicapping. The computer program and his knack for winners made him a rising star in the handicapping world. His complex computer program based on algorithms and analytical calculations have led to a 60% ATS rate.

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