Last Updated: 2019-03-13
Darren Till (-240) vs Jorge Masvidal (+200)
The line is definitely off here, but I understand the reasoning. You’re yet again paying for the Ben Askren experience in The UFC. How does another fighter impact odds on this fight you ask? Like I’ve said many times, The UFC wants a return on their investment in Askren, and they’ve flown him out to confront Darren Till should he win this fight. The odds are reflecting more of a pre-scripted WWE price here that it’s a formality, which I don’t agree with. To be honest, I’ve never thought much of Darren Till. I bet against him against Wonderboy (who I still think he lost to, and I’m not alone) and again against Woodley. He’s raw, green, and somewhat over rated. That being said, he also is going to have a huge London home town advantage, which could obviously sway judges for their hometown son.
Till is much bigger than Masvidal, but Masvidal has shown time and time again that doesn’t matter to him and he has more heart than anyone. This one is likely to go to the score cards, as Masvidal hasn’t ben finished in over 10 years, and I’d hope the round prop is set lower than 4.5. Till may look to make a statement on his way to Askren, but if he overlooks Masvidal, it will be a huge mistake. That being said, home cooking and Askren looming are built into the line, so I can’t blame you for just taking the value on Masvidal, it’s a much closer fight than the narrative and betting line would lead you to believe. I think Till wins, but I can’t lay this price, so if forced, I’d take a stab on the underdog.
The Pick: Jorge Masvidal (+200)
Leon Edwards (-150) vs Gunnar Nelson (+130)
Leon Edwards is buried in a stacked welterweight division, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t know about him. He’s coming off a loss to Usman, but who isn’t at this point. When you look at the losses of Edwards, it’s against guys that do one thing elite, you see Edwards does a bunch of things great, but nothing elite. He lost to Damien Maia’s wrestling and Santiago Ponzinibbio post eye poke. Nelson is a submission specialist, which is certainly an issue because he falls into that category as the type of fighter Edwards struggles with. That being said, there’s just more paths to victory for Edwards while Nelson has one-the submission.
Pick: Leon Edwards (-150)
Volkan Oezdemir (-265) vs Dominick Reyes (+225)
A fight of the night candidate, both are more than willing to stand and trade until someone falls. This has a flavor of a striker Vs. grappler, with Reyes having the gripping advantage with Oezdemir having the heavier hands. This one isn’t likely to go the distance, so it’s another potential underdog situation, but Reyes is slicker and faster on the feat with Oezdemir is more plodding and uncontrolled.
The Pick: Dominick Reyes (+225)
Nathaniel Wood (-300) vs José Quiñónez (+250)
Nathanial Wood has been finishing everyone along the way as he tries to rise up the ranks, finishing seven straight. Quinonez at a glance looks to have the better striking, but he lands over one less strike per minute than Wood and has issues with grappling. Wood is just a younger better version of Quinonez at this point, and like we saw with Dariush Vs. Dober, that’s a recipe for a winning night.
Pick: Nathaniel Wood (-300)
Jack Marshman (-165) vs John Phillips (+145)
A pure striker vs. striker matchup like this one usually comes down to who plays a little bit of defense (remember Cody Garbrandt?) So in that regard, it makes sense to go with the underdog just based on price. That being said, both of these fighters are who you want to bet against against grapplers, as they are a combined 0-4 between them. This fight should stay standing, and they’re going to swing until someone falls. Marshmann is a bit more polished, but I’ll take the underdog stab on the left hand of Phillips.
Pick: John Philips (+145)
Arnold Allen (-150) vs. Jordan Rinaldi (+130)
The underdog again has the size advantage here, but they are very evenly matched. Arnold Allen, despite the size difference is probably uses his weight a little bit better, and Rinaldi doesn’t have the tools to get it to the ground. They are both high fight IQ guys, which should make for a point fighting style of fight that likely sees the score cards, but an Allen submission is a possibility. As you’ll see throughout the prelims, there are a bunch of coin flip fights, so if you want to take the underdog pricing, I can’t blame you.
Pick: Arnold Allen (-150)
Marc Diakiese (+180) vs. Joe Duffy (-220)
Diakiese once had top prospect status, but it appears that is now a clear thing of the past after losing a three fight losing streak. He’s explosive and unpredictable, but the technical aspect of his game and the fundamentals seemed to never be properly trained as he relied on flash and the variance of a knockout. Joe Duffy, is by far the more well rounded mix martial artist that only has to be smart enough to avoid the heavy hands of Diakiese. Much like Dos Santos Vs. Lewis, this is a well rounded mixed martial artist Vs. a one trick pony, and Duffy is just the much smarter fighter. That being said it will only take one punch from Diakiese to put Duffy-or anyone-down.
Pick: Joe Duffy (-220)
Sabarbeg Safarov (+160) vs. Nick Negumereanu (-185)
This one should be a banger and not last very long. Sabarbeg Safarov has finished seven opponents in the first round while Nick Negumereanu has finished every single one of his nine opponents within two rounds. To put it bluntly, they’re going to stand in the middle of the octagon until one person goes down, and I can’t wait to see it. The under makes some sense if the round prop is hung around a 2.5, but a 1.5 is more likely, but a fight won’t go the distance prop is also an option. Safarov is winless inside The UFC at 0-2, but he’s at least fought at this level, so I’ll go with him as the underdog.
Pick: Sabarbeg Safarov (+160)
Tom Breese (-135) vs. Ian Heinisch (+115)
Tom Breese came out guns blazing in The UFC, knocking out everyone in his path, which was always the book on him, as he’s only gone past the second round three times out of his twelve professional fights. He moved out of that division after losing a split to Sean Strickland where he now stands at 1-0 at his current weight of 185. Ian Heinisch is coming in on short notice for this fight, but is more than capable of pulling off the slight upset. These are to very evenly matched fighters, but Breese has perfected distance striking and being able to dish out incredible punishment from a far away distance that makes him so hard to game plan for. I don’t know if he can get another finish, but at the very least he should be able to point fight this one out.
Pick: Tom Breese (-135)
Dan Ige (-155) vs. Danny Henry (+135)
The underdog Henry has a huge size advantage in this one from a height standpoint, but it may not come into play as the reach is almost the same and Henry shows he has tall man defense sometimes, which isn’t a good thing. This one should be a back and forth dirty boxing matchup while Age will look to get in close and hold him against the cage to work a decision victory.
Pick: Dan Ige (-155)
Priscila Cachoeira vs. Molly McCann
If you’re not familiar with Priscila Cachoeira, she was the one who took some of the most punishment in a fight this side of Cris Cyborg against Valentina Schevchenko not too long ago. She showed heart, but was completely out classed, that being said, who isn’t to Bullet. Molly McCann also had a ton of issues in her debut, as she both missed weight and was subbed out. That being said, she’s able to get a finish as she’s knocked out four women. McCann should be better this time around and hand Priscila Cachoeira another loss as long as the fight stays standing.
Pick: Molly McCann (-185)
Nad Narimani (-190) vs. Mike Grundy (+165)
Nad Narimani has been a prospect killer of late, taking out Khalid Taha and Anderson Dos Santos. He’s been a finishing machine stopping the fight in seven of his twelve victories. Mike Grundy has a great wrestling background and can use that to his advantage in this one, but Nad Narimani is much sharper and well rounded across the board and adjusts to his opponent better. Grundy is also on a long layoff, making his fight fight since 2017.
Pick: Noad Narminami (-185)
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