Last Updated: 2018-11-07
UFC 230 didn’t wind up being the star-studded card that was expected for an event at Madison Square Garden, but it was still a solid showing from those that were on the docket.
We’ve got another UFC event this week as the world’s top MMA promotion heads to the Mile High City for UFC Fight Night 139 with a main event featuring the Korean Zombie Chan Sung Jung and Yair Rodriguez. This will be the 25th anniversary celebration for UFC, as the first UFC event ever took place on November 12, 1993 and that, too, was in Denver.
In all, we’ve got 12 fights on the card for this week and the card will be highlighted by that main event, plus appearances from Donald Cerrone, Raquel Pennington, and Beneil Dariush. We originally had a 13th fight with Ray Borg and Joseph Benavidez, but Borg pulled out on November 7 with medical issues.
Lines will come from DSI Sportsbook for this weekend’s fight card, as we’ll take a look at the undercard and a deeper look at the main card.
Action starts in with Joby Sanchez against Mark De La Rosa. With a late change to the card, this one is off the board at DSI, but other places in the market have De La Rosa more than a two-dollar favorite. Sanchez last fought in February and tapped out to Roberto Sanchez. This is Sanchez’s second chance in UFC after going 1-2 in 2014-15. De La Rosa is 1-1 in his UFC career, including his only career loss.
Joseph Morales and Eric Shelton are next up on UFC Fight Pass. Shelton is a -120 favorite over Morales, with the take back at -110. Morales suffered his first career loss back in February against Deiveson Figueiredo Shelton is just 1-3 in his four UFC fights, including a unanimous decision loss to Alex Perez last time out. This is an important fight for both, but the coin flip odds look accurate.
Davi Ramos and John Gunther wrap up Fight Pass coverage with what looks to be a pretty cut-and-dry outcome. Gunther is undefeated, but the TUF 27 finalist is facing an uphill battle. Ramos is a -945 favorite and this one could be over very early, as Ramos had a first-round sub against Nick Hein last time out.
To Fox Sports 1 we go for the rest of the card, as Devonte Smith battles Julian Erosa at 155 pounds. Erosa is 22-5 in his pro career, but finds himself a noticeable underdog here. Smith is -240 to improve to 9-1. The long-limbed lightweight knocked out Joseph Lowry back in August to impress Dana White and UFC bookers, so he draws this fight. Erosa has fought a couple times in UFC, but he’s never really been able to break through and it doesn’t look like he will here either.
Beneil Dariush is just a -145 favorite against Thiago Moises in this one. Dariush, once thought to be a pretty good prospect in the lightweight division, was knocked out in just 42 seconds by Alexander Hernandez back in March. He hasn’t won a fight in over two years, as he is 0-2-1 in that span. Moises, a Dana White Contender Series Brazil find, was the titleholder in RFA and is something of a hot prospect at just 23 years of age. Dariush is more experienced and has a better group of opponents in his past, but Moises fights for American Top Team and seems to be on the rise.
We’ve got another coin flip here as Chas Skelly and Bobby Moffett duel. Moffett is getting the -120 nod in the betting market, with Skelly at -110. This is the UFC debut for Moffett, another DWTNCS find for Dana White. He had title shots in both LFA and RFA and lost them both, which accounts for two of his three career losses. Skelly and Moffett have 17 career sub wins between them, so this will be a fight mostly held on the canvas. Skelly obviously has a much more accomplished list of opponents, but Moffett seems to be the preferred side of bettors early.
There are three women’s fights on the card, beginning with Ashley Yoder and Amanda Cooper in the strawweight division. Yoder is the -150 favorite, which should catch your attention because she’s actually lost three straight fights and all of her UFC matches. She got a little closer at UFC 222 with the split decision loss to Mackenzie Dern, but it was a loss nonetheless. Cooper is 2-3 in her UFC career, with a first-round submission loss to Dern back in May. A winless UFC fighter at -150 seems to be a pretty good indication.
Mike Trizano (+225) vs. Luis Pena (-280)
The main card starts off with Mike Trizano as a clear underdog to Luis Pena. Trizano won the UFC-TUF 27 finale by split decision over Joe Giannetti and this is his first official fight as a UFC combatant. He’s a perfect 7-0, including four wins last year for lesser promotions, including Bellator. It’s hard to know a lot about Trizano and the split decision was certainly criticized.
Oddly enough, Pena was also on the TUF 27 series. He fractured his foot, otherwise he looked like a guy that could win it all. He did win by unanimous decision in his quarterfinal fight, but the injury was too much to overcome. Now we see him as a big favorite over the eventual winner. That should tell us something.
Pick: Luis Pena
Once again, just read between the lines here. The winner of TUF 27 is facing a favorite that is nearly laying three dollars. That tells us all that we need to know.
Hannah Cifers (+310) vs. Maycee Barber (-410)
A couple of UFC newcomers make their debuts in this women’s strawweight fight, as Hannah Cifers faces Maycee Barber. Cifers is 8-2 in her career, including a couple of Titan FC triumphs over Andrea Soraluz and Thais Souza. Four of the 26-year-old’s last five wins have come via knockout.
Maycee Barber is only 20, but she is already making waves. Barber had an impressive performance on the Dana White Contender Series broadcast on July 17 and has slotted into this card. She’s 5-0 with four stoppage wins. This is something of a hometown fight for Barber, who is based in Fort Collins. Barber looked significantly better than her opponent, Jamie Colleen, after that fight.
Pick: Maycee Barber
UFC will do everything in its power to prop this girl up. She’s like a female version of Sage Northcutt with the hype and the look, but hopefully her career trajectory goes differently. She has lofty goals with a life dedicated to MMA so far and she’s already got a UFC contract at 20. This should be another notch in her belt.
Raquel Pennington (+140) vs. Germaine de Randamie (-170)
Raquel Pennington heads into the case for the first time since losing her only career title shot against Amanda Nunes at UFC 224. The layoff certainly didn’t seem to help Pennington, who was shaking off 18 months cage rust. She was knocked out in the fifth round to stop a four-fight winning streak.
Germaine de Randamie won the featherweight title over Holly Holm at UFC 208 by unanimous decision and hasn’t fought since. Injuries are the primary reason why, as she backed out of her fight against Marion Reneau and backed out again against Ketlen Vieira. We’ll see if the former kickboxing star, who was a perfect 37-0, as a professional, can get to this fight healthy and take care of business.
Pick: Raquel Pennington
This is an interesting fight all around. It’s a quicker turnaround for Pennington and it has been a long time for de Randamie. De Randamie is also fighting at bantamweight again after beating Holly Holm for the featherweight title. Pennington is a Colorado native, so this is a big homecoming for her. It feels like it could go either way, so we’ll take the plus price and see how it plays out.
Donald Cerrone (+175) vs. Mike Perry (-215)
The decline of Donald Cerrone has been sharp and disappointing. As Cerrone steps into the Octagon this weekend, he’ll be looking to get back on the right track. He’s lost four of his five fights. The rapid turnaround to fight Jorge Masvidal on January 28, 2017 feels like the turning point. Cerrone was about a month and a half removed from his win over Matt Brown and he was knocked out for just the third time in his career. He hasn’t been the same since and we see him a big underdog to Mike Perry here.
Perry hasn’t been very impressive lately either. Decision losses to Santiago Ponzinibbio and Max Griffin were not good looks and a split decision win over Paul Felder at UFC 226 wasn’t all that spectacular. Up until that win over Felder, Perry’s 11 other wins had been by knockout or TKO and that doesn’t bode well for Cerrone, who seems to be getting knocked out a lot more often now.
Pick: Mike Perry
Donald Cerrone doesn’t seem to have much left in the tank. He fought 11 times from the start of 2015 to October 21, 2017 and that was maybe just too much on his body. He’s wearing down rapidly and there may not be a second wind in sight.
Yair Rodriguez (+105) vs. Chan Sung Jung (-135)
We haven’t seen Yair Rodriguez or Chan Sung Jung in quite some time. Rodriguez hasn’t fought since UFC 211 when he lost to Frankie Edgar. The Korean Zombie hasn’t been seen since he headlined the Fight Night event on February 4, 2017 and knocked out Dennis Bermudez. This fight was originally supposed to feature Frankie Edgar, but he tore his biceps, so Rodriguez steps in.
Rodriguez hasn’t fought, but he’s made some UFC headlines. He reportedly turned down two fights at featherweight, which led to his alleged release from the promotion. He’s now back and fighting at featherweight, ironically enough. Money certainly talks. Rodriguez has a chip on his shoulder for this fight to say the least. The 26-year-old was a rising star before that Edgar loss, so it will be interesting to see how things go for him as he works his way back.
We’ve been waiting a while to see the Korean Zombie back in the Octagon. He was supposed to fight at UFC 214, but suffered a knee injury. His fight against Bermudez was his first fight in 3.5 years and now he’s got this fight for the first time in 21 months. It’s hard to tell what we can expect from him with these sustained layoffs.
Pick: Yair Rodriguez
Who knows what to expect here? Rodriguez at least has more fights recently, but the Korean Zombie is one of the most talented fighters we’ve ever seen with his background. There are better betting opportunities on the card.
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