UEFA Europa League Semifinals Free Pick of the Day – Valencia vs. Arsenal (5/9/19)


The second leg of the UEFA Europa League semifinal matchup between Valencia and Arsenal is set for Thursday, May 9, 2019, at Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia, Spain. Arsenal won the first leg 3-1 at home, so the Gunners are massive -400 favorites to reach the finals, but we expect to see a thrilling game in Valencia, as the hosts are -120 favorites to win the second leg and will look for a two-goal margin victory.

Valencia vs. Arsenal

Three-way: 1: Valencia -120; X: +300 Draw; 2: Arsenal +275

Spread -0.5: Valencia -120; Arsenal +100

Total 3 Goals: Over +100; Under -120

Both Teams to Score: Yes -175; No +125


The Bats are coming off a 6-2 victory at Huesca this past Sunday to put an end to their three-game losing streak. They are sitting at the 5th spot of the Spanish La Liga table with 55 points out of 36 games and a 46:34 goal difference, three points behind Getafe at the 4th spot that leads to the Champions League next season. Valencia eliminated Villarreal 5-1 on aggregate in the previous round of the Europa League, winning the second leg at home 2-0, while the Bats have won all their three games at Mestalla in the knock-out phase of the Europa League.

Striker Rodrigo is the team’s top scorer with 13 goals in 47 outings in all competitions, also adding nine assists to his name. Forward Santi Mina scored 12 goals along with five assists in 42 appearances, while playmaker Dani Parejo added ten goals and seven assists in 52 apps. Winger Carlos Soler is the team’s best assist-maker with ten dishes in 47 contests so far. The manager Marcelino cannot count on midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia (thigh) and Denis Cheryshev (knee) who are both out for the season.

Betting Trends:

  • Valencia won seven of its last ten games at home along with a loss and a couple of ties
  • Both teams scored in six of the last eight games overall
  • Six of the previous eight outings saw three or more goals in the total


The Gunners disappointed their fans on Sunday, playing a 1-1 draw with Brighton at home in the penultimate round of the English Premier League. Arsenal is laying at the 5th place of the Premier League table with 67 points and a 70:50 goal difference, three points behind the 4th-placed Tottenham, so the Gunners will have to win the Europa League if they want to play in the Champions League next season. The Gunners eliminated Napoli 3-0 on aggregate in the previous round of the Europa League, winning the second leg 1-0 on the road, while they’ve lost two of their three road contests in the knock-out phase of the Europa League.

Striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is the teams’ top scorer with 26 goals in 48 appearances in all competitions. Forward Alexandre Lacazette netted 18 times and made 12 dishes in 47 outings, and he’s the Gunners’ best assist-maker. Henrikh Mkhitaryan has six goals and six assists in 37 outings this season, while Mesut Ozil has six goals and just three assists. The manager Unai Emery will miss a few important first-team players, as Hector Bellerin, Aaron Ramsey, and Danny Welbeck are all sidelined with injuries.

Betting Trends:

  • Arsenal lost seven of its last 12 games on the road along with four wins and a tie
  • Both teams scored in six of the last eight games overall
  • Seven of the last ten contests overall had three or more goals in the total

Match Prediction

This is the biggest game of the season so far for both Valencia and Arsenal. The Bats still have some thin chances to qualify for the Champions League through their domestic championship, but they need to try their best to eliminate Arsenal and get another chance for the Champions League ticket in the Europa League finals. Valencia has to beat Arsenal by two or more goals and prevent the visitors to score two or more goals to reach the finals. Therefore, I expect to see a high-scoring affair, and if the Gunners find the net, the Bats will have score at least three goals to earn the extra time.

I would rather stick with the totals on this one, and the side bet looks pretty tricky. The Bats have won seven of their last ten games at home, while the Gunners have dropped seven of their previous 12 contests on the road, so I’ll take Valencia to win. Still, wagering on both teams to score along with three or more goals in the total seems like a better option.

The Pick: Both Teams to Score YES & Over 2.5 Goals (-110)

Additional Pick: Valencia (-120)

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