UEFA Europa League Pick of the Day Round of 32 – Lazio vs. Sevilla 2/14/19

Date | AuthorAdmir Aljic

Last Updated: 2019-02-12

The UEFA Europa League continues with the Round of 32, and the first legs are set for Thursday, February 14, 2019. We’ll see plenty of exciting matchups, but the most intriguing is certainly the one between Lazio and Sevilla. The first leg will be played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy, and Sevilla is a -200 favorite to qualify ahead of Thursday’s game.

Lazio vs. Sevilla

Three-way: 1: Lazio +130; X: +230 Draw; 2: Sevilla +210 at BetDSI Sportsbook

Spread 0: Lazio -145; Sevilla +115

Total 2.5 Goals: Over +100; Under -125

Both Teams to Score: Yes -125; No -105

 

LAZIO

The Eagles have won two games in a row in the Italian Serie A, beating Empoli 1-0 at home and Frosinone 1-0 on the road. They are sitting at the 7th spot of the Serie A table with 38 points out of 23 games and a 32:25 goal difference, just one point behind AC Milan at the 4th spot. However, the Eagles couldn’t cope with the heavyweights lately, losing to Juventus 2-1 at home and Napoli 2-1 on the road. Lazio has finished at the 2nd spot of the Europa League Group H table, recording three wins and three losses with a 9:11 goal difference, winning two of their three games on home soil.

The striker Ciro Immobile is the Eagles’ best player this season, scoring 15 goals and seven assists in 28 appearances, but he will almost certainly miss the first leg of the matchup with Sevilla due to a hamstring injury. The playmaker Luis Alberto is the team’s best assist-maker with six dishes in 23 games, and he will lead the Eagles Thursday night, as another key player, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic will be sidelined with a muscle injury. The manager Simone Inzaghi will have huge problems to assemble his starting eleven, as the defender Wallace is also sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Lazio won five of its last ten home games along with three draws and two losses
  • Both teams scored in four of the last seven games overall
  • Five of the last eight games had two or fewer goals in the total

 

SEVILLA

The Great of Andalusia is without a win in three games in a row, playing a 2-2 draw with Eibar at home last time out along with a couple of road losses at Celta Vigo 1-0 and Barcelona 6-1 in the Spanish Copa del Rey. Sevilla is currently sitting at the 4th spot of the Spanish La Liga table with 37 points out of 23 games and a 38:25 goal difference, winning just one of its last five games in the domestic championship. Sevilla has finished at the top of the Europa League Group J, recording four wins and two losses, losing two of their three games on the road.

The attacking midfielder Pablo Sarabia is enjoying a wonderful season, leading his team with 18 goals and 10 assists in 37 appearances in all competitions. The striker Wissam Ben Yedder has bagged 19 goals and seven assists in 35 apps, while the experienced playmaker Ever Banega has added eight goals and seven dishes thus far. The manager Pablo Machin cannot count on the winger Nolito (fibula) and midfielder Maxime Gonalons (ankle), while the right midfielder Aleix Vidal is doubtful due to a muscle injury.

Betting Trends:

  • Sevilla lost four straight games on the road
  • Both teams scored in two of the last eight games overall
  • Five of the last eight games had two or fewer goals in the total

 

Match Prediction

While Sevilla is struggling to perform at a high level, Lazio is struggling with injuries, so we should see quite an interesting game at Stadio Olimpico. The Eagles’ frontline will miss Ciro Immobile a lot, as he’s a prolific striker who can make a lot of damage in the final third, while Sergej’s absence is another kick in the teeth for Lazio’s offense. On the other side, Sevilla has kept its net intact only twice in the previous ten outings which tells a lot about their problems on the defensive end. Hereof, I wouldn’t be surprised if both teams find the net despite all injury problems among Lazio’s squad.

When it comes to the side bet, Lazio is a slight favorite to win the first leg at home, but I don’t feel comfortable with picking the eventual winner. It might be a draw, as I expect to see a patient approach on both sides, but one goal will change the things completely. Still, Sevilla has been awful on the road lately, so I’ll take Lazio to win the first leg in front of the home fans.

The Pick: Lazio (+130)

Additional Pick: Both Teams to Score YES (-125)

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