UCF vs. Tulsa College Football Betting Pick 11/8/19


The UCF Knights (-17) are traveling north to face their in-conference counterpart Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. The opening kickoff for this game is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 will televise the action.

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UCF at Tulsa Betting Odds 11/8/2019

This AAC game’s spread is placed at 17 points in favor of UCF. The Knights are currently receiving -1400 moneyline odds while the Golden Hurricane are +780. The over/under is set at 70.5 points, and if one program can create a bunch of points early, it will likely create a worthy live betting opportunity.

Square bettors are hammering the Knights, as the opening line was 16. The game’s over/under hasn’t changed after it was initially set at 70.5.

The Knights are 7-2 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against conference opponents. The Golden Hurricane are 2-7 SU overall and 0-5 SU in conference play. The Knights are down 2.8 units this season and 4-5 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 5-4.

The Golden Hurricane are down 4.2 units in 2019. The team is 5-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 4-5.

UCF enters this contest on a zero-game losing streak while Tulsa has won zero in a row. The Knights are coming off a resounding 44-29 win over Houston last week. The passing game was on point as Dillon Gabriel completed 21-of-30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns. Adrian Killins Jr. (only 26 yards on nine rush attempts) and Bentavious Thompson (65 yards on seven carries, two TDs) led the ground attack in the win while Marlon Williams (six receptions, 31 yards, one TD) and Tre Nixon (six catches, 123 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties.

One game ago, Tulane got the victory against this Tulsa team by a score of 38-26. The Golden Hurricane defense let the Green Wave eat up the clock by running for 290 yards on 46 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Stephon Huderson put up a good showing for Tulane, recording 100 rushing yards on seven attempts, along with 32 yards on one catch. For Tulsa, Zach Smith completed 17-of-33 passes for 270 yards and one touchdown. Shamari Brooks (65 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and Corey Taylor II (49 yards on 11 carries, one TD) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Josh Johnson (five receptions, 57 yards) and Keenen Johnson (four catches, 60 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

UCF has run the ball on 55.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tulsa has a rush percentage of 52.4 percent. The Knights have rushed for 226 yards/game (including 220 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 25 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Golden Hurricane are averaging 132 rush yards per contest (152 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.

If the results so far this season are any indication, then the Knights ought to own an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 5.3 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Golden Hurricane have recorded 3.1 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.9 to opponents.

The Knights have averaged 325 yards through the air overall (324 per game against conference opposition) and have 29 passing TDs so far. The Golden Hurricane have produced 272 pass yards per game (284.4 in the AAC) and have 12 total pass scores.

UCF has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 138 yards and throw for 210 yards per game. Tulsa has allowed 205.3 rushing yards per game and 202 to opponents in the air. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.30 to opposing QBs, while the Golden Hurricane have given up a 7.4 ANY/A.

Gabriel is up to 2,298 pass yards on the year, and has connected on 142-of-231 attempts with 20 passing touchdowns and only five interceptions. Gabriel’s got a sparkling 9.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 12.15 over the past two games.

In the home locker room, Zach Smith has tallied 2,131 yards, 11 TDs and six INTs. Smith’s ANY/A stands at 5.70 for the season and 7.25 over his last two games.

These two conference foes did not get a chance to face each other in 2018.

UCF Knights at Tulsa Golden Hurricane Betting Pick

SU Winner – Knights, ATS Winner – Knights, O/U – Over


Team Betting Trends

Tulsa has lost seven fumbles this season while UCF has lost six.

The UCF defense has 24 sacks on the year while Tulsa has just seven.

UCF has averaged 6.1 yards per carry over its past three games and 7.3 over its last two.

Tulsa has averaged 3.8 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.

Over its last three matches, Tulsa is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for UCF’s last game was 73.5. The under cashed in the team’s 44-29 win over Houston.

Over its last three matches, UCF is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for Tulsa’s last matchup going into it was 59.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-26 loss to Tulane.

Tulsa has dropped seven of its last eight games SU, with a three-point win over Wyoming on September 21st accounting for the one victory over that span.

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