2019 U.S. Open Golf Betting Odds & Picks

Date | AuthorAdam Burke

Last Updated: 2019-06-10

Brooks Koepka heads into this week’s US Open at Pebble Beach looking to do something that hasn’t been done since 1905. That year at Myopia Hunt Club in South Hamilton, Massachusetts, Willie Anderson won his third straight US Open. Koepka is hoping to do exactly that this week in California.

There is no shortage of storylines for this week’s event, as Tiger Woods looks for his fourth US Open to tie Anderson, Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan, and Jack Nicklaus for the most all-time. This star-studded field is loaded with all the game’s top players, including Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Justin Rose, and Justin Thomas, just to name a few.

It should be an awesome week at Pebble Beach and we could have a ton of drama with Sunday’s final pairings. Odds for this week’s tournament are on the right-hand side for desktop viewers and below the comment box for mobile viewers as we take a look at the US Open field.

(Check out the YouTube video linked above for golf expert Brian Blessing’s analysis of the field)

 

Back to Pebble

This is the second PGA Tour stop at Pebble Beach for this season. Usually we see courses skipped if they have regular events during the year that they are hosting a major, but not Pebble Beach. That means we have course form data from this year and tons from the annual Pro-Am to rely on.

This is the first time that the US Open has been at Pebble Beach since 2010. Graeme McDowell won that year at even par. Gregory Havret finished second. Obviously it was one of those strange years and the wind was whipping around. Tiger won at Pebble in 2000. Tom Kite won in 1992. Tom Watson won in 1982. Jack Nicklaus won his second US Open at Pebble Beach in 1972. That makes this the sixth time that Pebble Beach has hosted the US Open.

Heavy rains have hit Pebble Beach in recent weeks, so the fairways and the rough are both luscious and thick. That means that the course will play longer than usual, but it also means that the greens are soft and very forgiving. That has not been the case in some recent US Opens, including last year at Shinnecock, when everything played like a skating rink.

The course will play as a par 71 just under 7,100 yards, but wind can make some holes longer and some holes shorter.

Note that FOX will have the coverage of this year’s event.

 

Recent Form

We’re hitting the US Open at the right time. Rory McIlroy was dominant last week at the Canadian Open and has two wins on the season, with the other at TPC Sawgrass. He’s finished in the top 10 in five of his last six events. Dustin Johnson has two runner-up finishes, at the Masters and the PGA Championship, and two additional top-five finishes in his last seven events. Patrick Cantlay is a burgeoning superstar and he won The Memorial two weeks ago. Justin Rose has struggled of late, but he was hot early in the year, including good efforts at the Match Play and the Wells Fargo. Tiger won the Masters, as we all know.

Adam Scott was second two weeks ago at the Memorial and seems to be back on track with four top-20 finishes in his last five starts. Jordan Spieth has three straight top-eight finishes, including a third at the PGA, so he seems to have figured it all out again. Matt Kuchar has five top-eight finishes in his last seven events. Henrik Stenson was eighth last week.

A lot of golf’s best players are swinging it well right now. That should make for a lot of fun.

 

Course Form

What about form at Pebble Beach? Phil Mickelson won here earlier this year, so he has to be happy about his chances heading into this one. Phil has two wins and two runner-up finishes since 2012 on the Pacific coast. Dustin Johnson has two wins dating back to 2009 and has only finished outside the top 10 on four occasions dating back to 2008. He wasn’t spectacular last week in Canada, but he, like so many other players, had his sights set on this week.

Jason Day really likes Pebble Beach as well. He’s finished in the top five each of the last three years here and has three additional top-10 finishes dating back to 2008. He also has two in the top-15. He is not in great form, with his best finish fifth at the Masters, but he loves this course and is a very solid wind player.

Brandt Snedeker was on my radar last week at the RBC Canadian Open and he finished fourth. He’s got two wins and a fourth in his last seven starts at Pebble Beach. In this deeper field, he’s got slightly longer odds at 50/1. He’s a guy to keep an eye on for sure.

Jimmy Walker is a real long shot this week at 150/1 and won’t win, but you can get a top-five or top-10 finish prop on him at a good price. He has five top-five finishes and a win at Pebble Beach this decade.

 

Handicapping the Field

As great as it would be to get a long shot up there, and we’ll probably have one or two in the final pairings, this looks like a very chalky event. The top ball strikers on Tour in strokes gained off the tee and approach are all stellar players. The top 10 is Rory, DJ, Cantlay, Garcia, Matsuyama, Thomas, Koepka, Casey, Emiliano Grillo, and Keegan Bradley.

The greens seem to be forgiving this week, so guys just outside the top 10 like Gary Woodland, last year’s runner-up Tommy Fleetwood, Scott, Kuchar, Stenson, Woods, Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Keith Mitchell should be aggressive and flag hunting.

 

Picks

Without a lot of intrigue down the board, it’s about finding short prices to like. Jordan Spieth’s putting has been excellent this year and he plays really well at Pebble Beach, so he’s interesting at +1760. I’d prefer Jason Day at +2800, but may take a small piece of Spieth. Day is also top 10 in strokes gained putting and has a lot of great success here.

I’ll also have Snedeker on my card again this week. I was hoping for better than 50/1, but oddsmakers are smart and know he plays well in Cali. Last week’s top-five finish may have shaved a few dollars off of that price. Ian Poulter at 100/1 is the only long shot I’m interested in, as he has a lot of experience playing in wind and the shorter track doesn’t hurt him as much as a longer track would. This hasn’t been his best major, but he has three top-15 finishes in the last two months.

For fun, I’ll play Rickie Fowler small at 25/1 and have another reason to root for him. It is interesting that Fowler rarely plays here and I think that shows in his price. He hasn’t played here since 2012. He’s going to get that major soon. Because of his relative inexperience at Pebble, I think he can focus more on golf as opposed to all the noise that surrounds him without a major.

Ultimately, it’s Dustin Johnson this week. Rory is great and so is Koepka, but this feels like DJ’s tournament to lose. He almost always plays well here, even though he didn’t earlier this year. He’s only +765, but he’s very much deserving of the low price.

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2019 US Open Golf Betting Odds
Dustin Johnson +765
Rory McIlroy +775
Brooks Koepka +810
Tiger Woods +1120
Patrick Cantlay +1760
Jordan Spieth +1760
Justin Rose +2335
Justin Thomas +2500
Jon Rahm +2500
Rickie Fowler +2500
Xander Schauffele +2500
Jason Day +2800
Francesco Molinari +3000
Adam Scott +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Tommy Fleetwood +3300
Tony Finau +4000
Phil Mickelson +4000
Matt Kuchar +4000
Webb Simpson +4500
Shane Lowry +4500
Bryson DeChambeau +4500
Paul Casey +5000
Henrik Stenson +5000
Brandt Snedeker +5000
Gary Woodland +6600
Marc Leishman +6600
Sergio Garcia +6600
Patrick Reed +7000
Martin Kaymer +7500
Matt Wallace +8000
Graeme McDowell +8000
Louis Oosthuizen +9000
Ian Poulter +10000
Tyrrell Hatton +10000
Bubba Watson +10000
Kevin Na +11500
Keegan Bradley +12500
Jim Furyk +12500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +12500
Kevin Kisner +12500
Rafa Cabrera-Bello +12500
Cameron Smith +12500
Scott Piercy +14000
Jason Dufner +14000
Erik Van Rooyen +14000
Emiliano Grillo +14000
Daniel Berger +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Haotong Li +15000
Jimmy Walker +15000
Lucas Glover +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Si Woo Kim +15000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Branden Grace +15000
Billy Horschel +15000
Alex Noren +16000
C.T. Pan +16000
Thomas Pieters +17500
Luke List +17500
Charles Howell III +17500
Aaron Wise +17500
Byeong-Hun An +17500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +20000
Keith Mitchell +20000
Scottie Scheffler +20000
Andrew Putnam +20000
Bernd Wiesberger +20000
Thorbjorn Olesen +22500
Kyle Stanley +22500
Lucas Bjerregaard +22500
J.B. Holmes +22500
Jhonattan Vegas +25000
Chez Reavie +25000
Joel Dahmen +25000
Viktor Hovland +25000
Abraham Ancer +25000
Justin Harding +27500
Aaron Baddeley +27500
Dean Burmester +30000
Luke Donald +30000
Matt Jones +30000
Nick Taylor +35000
Harris English +35000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +35000
Ernie Els +40000
Chesson Hadley +40000
Sam Horsfield +40000
Ryan Fox +40000
Oliver Schniederjans +40000
Marcus Kinhult +40000
Brian Stuard +40000
Anirban Lahiri +40000
Merrick Bremner +50000
Luke Guthrie +50000
Patton Kizzire +50000
Nathan Lashley +50000
Roberto Castro +50000
Shugo Imahira +50000
Zac Blair +50000
Stewart Hagestad +50000
Collin Morikawa +50000
Chan Kim +50000
Alex Prugh +50000
Adri Arnaus +50000
Tom Hoge +60000
Sam Saunders +60000
Nick Hardy +60000
Brandon Wu +60000
Sepp Straka +75000
Cody Gribble +75000
Chun An Yu +75000
Clement Sordet +75000
Joseph Bramlett +75000
Andreas Halvorsen +75000
Lee Slattery +100000
Luis Gagne +100000
Julian Etulain +100000
Justin Walters +100000
Kevin O'Connell +100000
Connor Arendell +100000
Chip McDaniel +100000
Devon Bling +100000
David Toms +100000
Daniel Hillier +100000
Mike Weir +100000
Mikimu Horikawa +100000
Mito Pereira +100000
Rob Oppenheim +100000
Renato Paratore +100000
Rhys Enoch +100000
Marcus Fraser +100000
Matthieu Pavon +100000
Andy Pope +100000
Austin Eckroat +100000
Billy Hurley III +100000
Brendon Todd +100000
Brett Drewitt +100000
Cameron Young +100000
Carlos Ortiz +100000
Callum Tarren +100000
Michael Thorbjornsen +125000
Matt Parziale +125000
Noah Norton +125000
Chandler Eaton +125000
Charlie Danielson +125000
Kodai Ichihara +125000
Jovan Rebula +125000
Richard Lee +150000
Ryan Sullivan +150000
Spencer Tibbits +200000
Matthew Naumec +200000
Hayden Shieh +200000
Eric Dietrich +200000
Brian Davis +200000