Troy Trojans vs. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Preview and Picks

Troy Trojans
(2-2, 1-3 ATS)

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
(2-2, 1-3 ATS)


In a game that could ultimately prove to be the de facto Sun Belt championship, the Troy Trojans and Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders will duke it out in NCAA football betting action on Tuesday night.

For the Trojans, this game is one in which the offense is expected to roll. This Troy team just hasn’t lost a step offensively, which is why 34.0 points per game are hitting the board. It got off to a good start in Sun Belt play last week, beating the Arkansas State Red Wolves 35-28, but is hasn’t covered a college football spread since September 11th. The world will be introduced to one of the top statistical passers in the country on Tuesday night, as QB Corey Robinson will lead this team on the field. For the first time in awhile, the Trojans don’t have a dual threat of a quarterback, but Robinson is a fantastic drop back passer. He is completing 61.8 percent of his passes and has an 8/3 TD/INT ratio. Robinson, still just a freshman, has already thrown for 1,244 yards in just five games. The running game is split between three men, all of which are equally dangerous. Running Backs DuJuan Harris, Shawn Southward, and Chris Anderson have combined for 106 carries, 512 yards, and four TDs for Troy. The problem has been the woeful defense, which ranks in the bottom ten in the country in total yards allowed.

MTSU finally gets QB Dwight Dasher back in the lineup after a four game suspension that simply felt like it took forever to get through. Dasher put up some of the best numbers in the land last year, and many felt as though he could be good for 5,000 yards of offense and 50 TDs this year had he stayed out of trouble. Alas, you never know with Dasher exactly what you’re getting, as this is a man that threw for 24 TDs and ran for 13 more in 2009. This offense is already good at 427.8 yards per game, but with Dasher calling the shots, things are only going to be getting better and better. Once again, defense is a big problem. Though the Blue Raiders are a modest 60th in the nation in both total ‘D’ (351.5 YPG) and scoring defense (23.8 PPG), they really have played a modest schedule to date, with no bowl teams on the schedule. This week’s game against Troy and next week’s duel against Georgia Tech are clearly the two hardest games of the season for a team that many thought could run the table this year.

The oddsmakers have forgotten about just how good Dasher and the Blue Raiders can be when they are firing on all cylinders. This is the biggest game of the season in Murfreesboro, and MTSU is going to want to put on a significantly better show tonight than they did in their opener, a 24-17 loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Blue Raiders can effectively win the Sun Belt on Tuesday night.

Selection: Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders -3.5

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