Last Updated: 2019-05-12
We move to Game 7 in the Philadelphia and Toronto playoffs series for the right to advance and face Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals and the Raptors are favored by 6 with a total of 209. The Raptors opened -6.5 and the line has dipped slightly with the Raptors getting the majority of the wagers, while the total inched upwards from 208.5 with 70% of the wagers on the over.
The 76ers cleaned Toronto’s clock in rebounding last game, which turned out to be the difference, as Philadelphia had a 16-9 edge in offensive rebounds and 64-43 for the game. Despite making more turnovers once again, the Sixers were able to parlay their rebounding edge into eight more field goal attempts than the Raptors had and with neither team really lighting it up from the field, that was all it took.
The last two games have gone over the total, but that didn’t stop oddsmakers from coming out with the lowest total of the series and after coming out at 208.5, the first move was to 207.5, only to see the stem of public money push it back to 209.
The home team is 4-2 in the series and the spread hasn’t been a factor, as the team which was won the game has also covered the spread. The two games that were decided by five points saw the visiting team win, while when the home team has won the margin of victory has been at least double digits.
The 76ers need to shut down Toronto from the outside and in their three victories, the Raptors haven’t shot above 27% from 3-point range. In Toronto’s three wins, the Raptors have shot 32.3% and better, including 40% in Game 5, so there’s not much secret there.
In Toronto’s three wins, the Sixers have shot 41.8% or worse, so it’s more a matter of a team coming through with a good defensive effort than it is a team playing good offense to take the victory.
Even though the spread is currently at 6, wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach 6.5 again before game time, but no real interest in taking the spread in this one.
Instead, will look to the total and have to think this one lands under the number, as both teams should give their best defensive efforts and there should be at least one team that has a strong game on that side of the ball, so will go ahead and give the under 209 a shot here.
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